USCIS will weight H-1B lottery by salary starting Feb 2026
theh1brecords.substack.comAuthor here.
Quick summary of probability shifts under the weighted system:
Level I ($80K median): -57% selection probability
Level II ($103K median): -14%
Level III ($135K median): +29%
Level IV ($158K median): +73%
Data source: DOL LCA disclosure data. Happy to discuss methodology.
> The rule designed to stop "lottery abuse" hits direct employers 3x harder.
To prove this, you need to compute the total numbers and not just proportion. If 22% of the direct employees are Level 1, but there's only 300 direct level 1 filings total, the absolute numbers are dwarfed by the drop in probability of the staffing firms.
Excellent point. My analysis calculated Level I concentration within each employer type but not absolute volumes.
You're correct that if staffing firms file significantly more total applications, their absolute number of affected Level I positions could exceed product companies despite lower concentration.
To properly claim "3x harder hit," I'd need to show either: 1. Total Level I applications by employer type, or 2. Total estimated selection losses by employer type
Without those absolute numbers, the "3x harder" claim overstates what the data shows. The accurate claim is that product companies have 3x higher Level I concentration - but that's not the same as 3x more impact.
This is a good catch. The proportions tell us about hiring patterns but not total system impact.
It’s like you’re trying to fill out a bingo card of “obviously written by ai” markers
Hey, lemme apologize first. I indeed generated this above comment by AI because I was extremely busy with something else and didn't have time to respond but i'll make sure this will not happen again.
sincerely.
Good lord, is there a way to block someone on HN? What slop...
Hey, I didn't generate everything by AI but only to frame the words since i was busy with something else. I'll make sure from now on such mistakes will never happen again.
sincerely.
How many rs in raspberry? Think hard.