Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?

3 points by devasiajoseph 13 years ago · 1 comment

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This question has been asked before - previous replies here on HN include:

    brg: Because software development is an act of invention. While
         experience and education often tell us that something is
         possible to accomplish, the route to the end is unknown.

         The metaphor Michael Wolfe provides is good. But software
         scheduling isn't so much about diversions and stumbles as
         it is about the trials of invention and artisanship.[0]


    zoowar: It doesn't matter what estimate software developers
            make, program management sets arbitrary release dates.[1]

(Typos fixed)

More than one person here referred to Michael Wolfe's answer.

And for reference, here are some of the submissions:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6033335

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6028623

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6024765

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3808866

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743048

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3598325

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3588950

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535100

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3530928