Ask HN: What happens when "everyone" codes?
In the before times, roughly 2-3% of workforce probably wrote code in some capacity. What happens when this goes to 50%?
I don't think everyone wants to code. I think a lot of people never think of developing and wouldn't even if it was easy. Some people always wanted to develop and couldn't, for whatever reason, and now more or less can to some capacity. How many people today even use PCs for recreational purposes?
I think of it like:
everyone :: deals everyone :: scripts, tools, small apps
lawyer :: contracts swe :: high value software
When there are disputes (incidents), lots of money and risk involved, that's where you want a lawyer. I think SWE will stick around as a craft but I genuinely don't know if it will be more or less valuable.
not the same as coding, but: https://techjournal.org/the-great-computer-science-exodus-wh...
more coders, less computer science
Same as for surgeons.
Same as for surgeons.
Do you mean when people buy robots that can be loaded with an unrestricted model that permits it to perform surgery at home? I could envision people trying to bring back dangerous old methods of anesthesia such as using Henbane given it can be found in abundance. I can also envision this going horribly wrong for many people as the robot would only have documented knowledge and not real world experience.
everyone is a surgeon?
it's already happening, I believe. I think of it in two ways:
the optimistic one is that more people can build something of their own and some of them will get properly interested in how technology works.
the pessimistic one is that a lot of bad products come out, bad user experience, security and privacy are forgotten, and people can't really tell the difference between a good product and slop.
but maybe over time (after a lot of bad stuff happened) people will be able to tell the difference. it will take some time