The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the PostHuman Era (1993)
edoras.sdsu.edu> Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence
Off by about 3 years, not bad.
Would be interesting to read or hear him do a retrospective of this in light of the last couple of years, but unfortunately he died in 2024.
I'd say the jury's still out. Somehow, I feel---or, perhaps, would rather believe---reasonable doubt will prevail at the end of this AI hype cycle. From the essay, this version of the future sounds far more appealing, if not more likely, than a sudden-born superintelligence.
> Lynn Margulis [14] has made strong arguments for the view that mutualism is the great driving force in evolution.
> ...
> [14] Margulis, Lynn and Dorion Sagan, _Microcosmos, Four Billion Years of Evolution from Our Microbial Ancestors_, Summit Books, 1986.