M. Williams, OpenAI: Human extinction in the next few years seems likely
xcancel.comI think my counter is relatively straightforward. Economists have said that as of more or less today there has been zero impact from AI. Despite layoffs in tech. I don’t think we go from “no economic impact” to end of humanity in “the next few years”.
Did the economists’ analysis consider variables like AI-spurred layoffs / job displacement also influencing the metrics being considered? I suppose it would be very hard to do as it’s unclear what subset of layoffs were downstream effects of AI, and I’m sure if I, random guy on HN, thought of it, they, actual economists, surely would’ve too.
In any case, the economics of a doomsday device are probably quite unique.., though economic impact as a proxy for intelligence and intelligence as proxy for likelihood-of-annihilating for some bands is probably a fair way to approximate here…
Zero impact seems weird. Aren’t employees at major software companies saying they don’t even write code anymore? I personally know people are Google who say this.
Explicitly told we should not be writing code anymore at Microsoft.
Wow, okay. Yeah that sounds like a pretty major impact lol. And it’s still extremely early days.
had someone use that exact phrase "I don't even write code anymore" this morning when we were getting coffee
dude is a Ph.D in ML and is leading pipeline development efforts in an ML org
Sorry, wrong link: https://xcancel.com/Marcus_J_W/status/2098078076299366684
Do any of these people have kids?
Honest question, what are average joes supposed to do? We have no control here. This incessant messaging is going to inspire genuine chaos. What are young adults and parents of young kids supposed to do other than panic?
We’ve abandoned religion and adopted tech consumerism as our new pseudo religion. Is Kubrick our prophet, and 2001 our prophesy?
how much water purification you have? got any guns?
if you needed to GTFO out of wherever you are because it's going to hell, where will you go and how will you get there?
if service-jobs vanish tomorrow what can you make or do?
I know two guys who quit STEM after COVID to run a coffee shop, and I wonder if they're just ahead of the curve.
if you're panicing you've lost. make a plan, you have the time and capacity. hell, AI is still free and could help.
Can you explain more the coffee shop point? Ahead how? Just by checking out of the discussion and focusing elsewhere?
I can’t imagine coffee making is preparing them in any way, so are you just looking at it from a psychological angle?
Unless this happens via nuclear annihilation not a chance.
Have these people ever left their bubble? In sane parts of reality barely anything has actually changed except some people are dumber because they use ChatGPT for absolutely everything.
Oh and restaurant menus are fugly now.
Possibly, but more likely because of the ravaging weather events as gas powered data centers churn out more emissions in four years than the last fourty
>Unless there is AI regulation or a coordinated slowdown between labs, human extinction in the next few years seems very likely
Sigh, no explanation of how this would occur (even after multiple questions on that thread).
It's starting to sound like hot air and frankly tiresome. I want data worksheets.
AI is the only product where prophesies of doom about it are part of the marketing strategy.
It is bullsh*t.
Just say that you need the IPO money to build yourself a bunker.
If it was a true danger, then instead you would have supported pausing AI and an international governing body to halt the development globally (including China) right now.
But you didn't. Because someone needs to complete their grift first before dumping shares on retail investors.