Ukraine's Kill Zone

What strikes me is that drone warfare has shifted military strategy, though just how is hard to say, particularly as someone who's not studied the field for a few decades.

Largely, drones, ballistic missiles, unguided rockets, and artillery are area denial weapons. It seems that the game is less about occupying and controlling territory than it is about denying that capability to the enemy, and network disruption. The enemy with the longest, and least-redundant, supply lines is at a disadvantage. And "fire and motion" tactics become much more difficult, at least based on traditional ground-based infantry, cavalry (armour), and artillery.

This isn't new. Mines, air superiority (a "no-fly zone" is aerial area denial), and artillery have achieved this in the past. Drones permit persistent precision attacks on individual soldiers, equipment, and positions. At the same time, the payloads are relatively small, so that a small level of protection is often sufficient ... but this also effectively pins resources down to a single location (or set of bolt-holes). If locations are known, heavier-duty munitions (missiles, artillery) can be brought to bear.

Counterdefence (anti-drone, anti-missile, anti-artillery fire) become critical, as is being seen across Ukraine and Russia.

Supply lines, both bulk (road, rail, sea, bridge) and final (increasingly also by drone) also become critical links. Solving how to get troops and materiel to the front lines, and casualties back, is a huge logistical problem, and the side which addresses this most effectively has a major advantage.

Russia, often the world's largest gas and oil exporter, is discovering that its production, storage, and distribution infrastructure are highly vulnerable. Ukraine has already struck deep within Siberian regions knocking out refineries and storage depots. If this continues through the winter, Russia could be facing extreme hardship (and political backlash). My understanding is that many cities have largely centralised heating infrastructure, which if damaged would put large populations at risk.

Thanks for sharing, very clear and impressive overview.