Ask HN: Will Oracle's fall from grace be good for Open Source
So, over-simplified, Oracle has agreed to build 7GW of data centres (costing about 300bn) in order to sell them to OpenAI who will pay 300bn over 5yrs.
But if they don’t build the DC they don’t get cash, and if something something AI bubble then openAI cannot pay and so S&P500 just marked them down as one rung above junk (if they hit junk huge numbers of portfolios have to drop them etc etc)
So basically it’s not likely but not impossible the Oracle can collapse under the weight of capex costs for DCs that don’t get revenue
Ok - so not a likely scenario. But let’s go with the hypothetical. And suddenly what happens to the crown jewel the Oracle Database? Of course there would be something something special vehicle, but the software industry is fairly new - I don’t think we have had a major piece of software at the heart of every single enterprise just vanish (lots that got replaced but not just collapse?)
And will that mean people say “quick move to SQL Server? Or will they say “how do we fund Postgres over the next 20 years?”
If Oracle can vanish (and not saying it will) how do governments and companies protect these basic utility services ? What happens if Apple stops offering updates in country X or Y?
I’m just wondering how we get a grip on the strategic risks? OSS looks nice but the long term issues look rough
Just ranting - any thoughts? Oracle is in a serious pickle as the AI Winter approaches. Their financial model was predicated on that happy exponential growth curve going ever upward. But bond investors have had enough, and now that debt downgrade to one notch above junk and the bond market saying it actually is junk. The bright bulbs at Oracle must know what’s coming because every prompt I give the leading AIs says that their path to saving themselves is narrow. The first step is for them to ditch their agreements with OpenAI and resell that capacity to the hyperscalers. The second step is to put a legal and corporate firewall around their non AI business. If AI falls, Oracle would still continue on in a lesser form, supporting Oracle db etc. Meanwhile word is spreading of a reverse dispersion trade (Bloomberg article) as a growing horde of traders realizes that taking away the lunch bowl at the AI party is going to incite a panicked rush to the exists. My thoughts is that we should not underestimate Oracle ‘s lawyers. As in they can get out of the obligation to build the DCs?
It seems the obvious way out … A solution like that won't come for free. I have no idea what consequences lawyering not building billions of dollars of data center, but they won't be trivial.