The Odds of Me Being Mauled by a Bear This Weekend Keep Going Up on Kalshi

this is one of those kalshi markets that sounds absurd but actually has real data behind it. bear encounter rates by region and season are well documented. the pricing is probably still wrong tho because most kalshi traders have zero idea how to convert NPS bear sighting data into actual encounter probabilities. niche markets like this are where the biggest mispricings live