I'm Offering Scott Alexander a Wager About AI's Effects over the Next 3 Years

I thought this was refreshing, but when I got down to the conditions for the wager the percentages seem awfully high?

I can totally see AI having an impact which results in the media wage for computer/math-people to drop 60%, or employment of white collar workers to drop 45%?

Wow. There’s skepticism and then there’s this article which takes it to a whole new level. But to be fair, it is simply the breathless AI prognostication applied in the other direction.

He’s got a point, why should skepticism be held to a higher standard than the “everything is changing” crowd?