LLMs will not automate work
noahpinion.blogI don't know that 2% not working is substantially distinguishable from noise and suspect people with very marginal needs and earning eg old folks working part time are a factor.
I should think one would want to find out instead if society actually lost real productive work or Walmart lost 65 year olds working as greeters because they need more social security money to pay rent.
Where in the article does the author justify their core thesis, that LLM's will not automate work? The only argument I see is that it hasn't happened yet, which is hardly the same thing.
(The irony is that they continually criticize others for not supporting their arguments.)
His argument is that janitors, food service workers, farmers, construction workers, checkout clerks, receptionists, security guards, cooks, warehouse workers, food delivery people, and other working-class people will not be automated any time soon.
I don't think that's controversial.
Based on what though? You can't just say things, you have to provide a basis for why.