The End of the Software Industry
alexkolchinski.com>We’re moving to a future where AI can conduct arbitrary information-processing tasks based on natural-language instructions from any reasonably intelligent human who understands the problem they’re trying to solve.
AKA programming, but compared to my current efforts to instruct my compiler via very specific instructions (nothing like ambiguous natural language), I find that although I consider myself reasonably intelligent, it can take me a long time to fully understand any non-trivial problem I'm trying to solve, during which AI "help" often sends me on a wild goose chase (because the "I" in AI is still very much absent). Overall AI might help me more than hinder, but I think the claimed "future" end of the software industry might be a long way off. Current AI gives me the impression there might be as much industry growth to fix AI errors as there will be industry shrinkage due to AI assistance.
I’ve had the same experience and agreed for the current state of the tech, I actually expect the industry to grow IF the AI tech doesn’t advance much further for a few years. But I think we’re only one to several leaps of capability away from the scales tipping towards fewer and fewer specialists being needed to translate human needs into instructions for computers.