Ask HN: Could be the energy problem the trigger for a new revolution in Europe?
Europe is going to a really difficult moment with energy prices going up and up. As a European, I would like to understand if energy could be the trigger for social revolt as bread prices were for the French Revolution or other uprisings. A revolution is when people take to the streets to demand something from the state. Let's say the Europeans took to the streets - what will they demand? Falling fossil fuel prices? And who will cover the difference? In Ukraine, until 2014, gas was cheap at the expense of a government loyal to Russia, but I guarantee that no one in this country will want such a life to return. Though it was an abundant life. I think discontent could translate into changes of power in government. John K. Galbraith, the noted Can-Am liberal economist, addressed the necessary components of revolution in the documentary “The Age of Uncertainty.” If I recall correctly, he said you need a weak and/or absent opponent (the state), a strong coalition of single-minded people who act and think together, a lot to be gained and no fear of what will be lost, and an effective leadership to lead the way. He noted that the prior revolutions, such as China and Russia, had very weak states. I suppose the same could be said of Germany after WW1. The communists tried to revolt in France in 1848, but they were crushed immediately. I don’t see Europe in weak position now, and I don’t think that people would be willing to lose everything (and possibly their lives) to achieve better energy prices. Know your neighbors.