Q2 - Tesla has announced they sold 75% of their Bitcoin
tesla-cdn.thron.com> As of the end of Q2, we have converted approximately 75% of our Bitcoin purchases into fiat currency. Conversions in Q2 added $936M of cash to our balance sheet.
Like I said before, a year ago, they are not looking to HODL their bitcoin. They are here to make money out of the hype in the form of a pump and dump and psychological manipulation. Q2 suggests they sold at around $45K to $31K. [0]
As predicted and expected, these Bitcoin maximalists and crypto bros got played like a piano.
> They are here to make money out of the hype in the form of a pump and dump and psychological manipulation
They sold at around their carrying value of around $30k. Seems like they had a stop-loss set. Strange way to pump and dump ...
No stop loss; they likely sold to make FCF positive.
BTC transactions don't count towards FCF. They are accounted under a different line item "Cash Flows From Investing Activities".
Yep. I don't even know who to feel bad for, either. People were (rightfully) calling this from Day-1, it's pretty amazing that people are oblivious enough to fall for it anyways.
It’s a net benefit that Tesla converts cryptohype into transportation electrification progress by way of magic tokens and fiat.
Those Bitcoin gains might have paid for many a Suoercharger stall!
You could argue the increased hype they brought to bitcoin offset any carbon offset there cars have produced
Think in systems. Perhaps short term, but also manufacturing capacity and an expanding fast dc charging network builds the machine that builds the machine.
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/15/tesla-cumulative-sales-...
No, I think long-term these devices will still have pretty poor carbon footprints since they're still packing massive, disposable Lithium Ion batteries, and continue to have such poor aftermarket values. Coupled with the treadmill of new features they're offering, I have a hard time taking your statement at face value.
Okay ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The market doesn’t care how we feel. People want cars. Sell them electric cars. Tesla can’t build them fast enough to meet demand. Those vehicle batteries (along with stationary storage batteries) will be recycled at end of life by Redwood Materials into newer, better batteries in 5-15 years. These cars will never burn petroleum, and will get cleaner as the grid gets cleaner. The price of refined petroleum will stay high because of no slack in refinery capacity, as capital won’t invest in an industry without a growth future. This further drives consumers to EVs. These are all facts.
Opinion: I can sell my 2021 Model Y for $15k more than I paid for it, and my 2018 Model S for $20k less than I paid for it with 100k miles on it. That’s fairly good value preservation imho.
"the market" won't start really replacing Tesla's vehicles until the value proposition is there. Unfortunately (as you highlighted), Teslas can't be made fast enough to fill the market, and they can't be sold cheap enough to out-saturate the truly awful ICE-vehicles. As long as it's legal to drive grandpa's $400 Buick, people will consistently pick cars that are cheap and destructive. That's just how our market works from a bottom-up perspective, and it's unlikely that Tesla will be pushing owners to keep their cars for 10-20 years like traditional gas guzzlers. So, you're spending $35k on a car that likely won't last you a decade, will eventually and inevitably become outdated or have electronic failure, and will not be serviceable by anyone other than the first-party manufacturer. I'd love to be an eco-warrior as much as anyone else on this site, but there's not even a faint chance I would pick that over a 5-year-old Fiesta I can get for a quarter of the price.
OK, for now, but I imagine 5 year old fiestas will go up in price alot when new ones stop getting made.
And then it will get harder and harder to keep them running. All the while EVs steadily dropping in price. Its a slow burn.
> Opinion: I can sell my 2021 Model Y for $15k more than I paid for it, and my 2018 Model S for $20k less than I paid for it with 100k miles on it. That’s fairly good value preservation imho.
That’s all cars atm. My 2021 Mazda is also selling for more than I paid
It has been this way historically all of the way back to mid 10s Tesla sales. Only a few years ago did Tesla drop their resale guarantee (when the market fundamentals provided for it versus them backstopping vehicle values).
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/rvg/RVG_Agree...
https://insideevs.com/news/490348/tesla-model-3-resale-value...
https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/finding-the-right-car/...
Yeah an electric car future is better than an oil car future. Thinking broader though they still have a large initial carbon impact and any future that depends on cars isn’t really sustainable. I think it takes too much focus off reducing dependence on cars entirely.
Exactly, the problem is incorrectly framed ICE vs. EV. It’s not the type of car, but our lifestyle that is destroying the planet.
We need to be smarter about co2.
We don't price in the real cost of Bitcoin.
Every co2 we put out there without it doing specific work before like smelting or transporting critical goods is co2 we need to remove which we wouldn't otherwise.
It sure is better for Tesla to make cars out of it, calling this whole story a net benefit is just Missleasing.
I’m not really following what you’re saying here. Should BTC be more expensive because of the relative CO2 impact?
No, it's value should be 0 because climate externalities are higher than any potential non -speculative value it can provide.
It's not hard to follow. We have currently extreme weathers around the globe.
BTC creates ton of co2.
Co2 is the problem.
We can't afford btc
Bitcoin should not even be on the radar when it comes to co2.
No sane person is looking to hodl anything. You buy investments when you expect they will go up and sell them when you expect them to go down. I’m not sure why you’d feel you predicted something here. Everyone knew they’d protect their investments.
Thanks, sanity is overrated anyway.
Numbers:
- Q2 EPS $2.27 vs EST of $1.83
- Q2 Rev $16.9B, EST $16.9B
- Free Cash flow of $621M but remember, $936M came from their sale of BTC, so business was negative
- Q2 auto gross margins was around 28%, which was right around the estimate, so people are accepting the increased prices
- total gross margin was about 25%
- car deliveries down but was expected, but manufacturing hit an all time high( DELIVERED ABOUT 255,00 VS 310,000 IN Q1)
- annual growth was still 50% in vehicle deliveries, so probably not much to worry about
- shares down 30ish% off their peak so they've fallen more than the market in general, but this is probably overlookable given the run they've had
- converted 75% of BTC to cash
- still have some btc impairment, remember you have to mark down btc on your balance sheet but you can't mark it up
- 1,000 cars a week made in Berlin for atleast a couple of weeks
- deployed 106MW of solar, very good, second in the US, i was wrong in this, this is a legit business
Thoughts:
- trade sanctions could delay further solar growth
- new 4680 cells aren't ready so they are making due with their older 2170 cells in their cars due to Texas factory being behind
- something to watch for is a succession plan as Elon is increasing seeming bored with Tesla
- Company is warning that the Austin and Berlin factories will continue to be "gigantic money furnaces", Elon's words, not mine, though it is great to see they are diversified by region and country now
- stock popped initially but is now mostly flat after hours, so institutional money didn't get surprised, we'll have to wait till tomorrow to see what retail things.
- with almost no move on stock price looks like the options had it priced right by predicting an implied move of less than 4%
- watch for them to announce they are partnering with someone to manufacture chips
- listen for news on the vaporware Truck, probably waiting on Austin to get its act together wrt battery production first.
- listen for talk of twitter, specifically if they talk about how many shares of Telsa Musk has locked up
- listen for them talking about liability for self driving and ongoing lawsuits, note about that they recognize half the self driving revenue up front and defer the second half until they deliver on milestone
- 2 numbers that impress me:
Cash and cash $18.9B
Customer deposits $1.1B
So much for hodling.
i'm sure they will buy back in after the coming massive crash. buckle up!! hedge funds, too big to fail banks, major wall street firms etc. etc. are all going to zero. the Ponzi Scheme that is the US economy is coming to an end and Gamestop is the linch pin. thanks to illegal naked short selling there are BILLIONS of counterfeit GME shares sold short that MUST be purchased back. this will be the largest transfer of wealth in history.
Why do you feel this way? Can you link any studies. I think you are right with GME/AMC/BB, there is something about the short float.
The crypto part I am not too informed on.
I read it as parody.
nope sorry 100% serious
everyone short GME is long AMC. AMC is just another distraction. plenty of studies on gme.fyi or /r/superstonk