Fact Sheet: Activity at the Wuhan Institute of Virology
state.govRoll a hyper-dimensional die representing all possible human-bat interaction locations over time.
How many of those are a mile away from locations where scientists actively collect bat viruses?
For those not familiar with the geography (like me), the caves where most of these viruses were collected are not near Wuhan, but about 1000 miles away, near [0]Kunming.
>[1]In 2004, deep in the wilderness of China's Yunnan province, a group of scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology discovered a cave full of wild bats carrying hundreds of SARS-related viruses.
>Their work, published in a draft paper in 2005, unearthed the link between SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and bats for the first time.
>Now the virologist who led that study, Shi Zhengli, has revealed one of the strains found in that cave — the exact location of which is a closely guarded secret — is almost identical to the 2019-nCoV coronavirus which has so far killed at least 1,115 people and infected more than 45,000 worldwide, news.com.au rreports
[0]https://nationalpost.com/news/world/cave-full-of-bats-in-chi...
[1] https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/coronavirus-mysterious-bat-...
Obviously it is possible this was a leak from a lab working on bats and coronaviruses. Zero Hedge was banned from Twitter for speculating about this under the flimsy excuse of “doxxing” a publicly-listed contact for the head of the Wuhan lab conducting coronavirus work, but they were right to suggest the possibility. After all, there have been several examples of governments covering up incidents like this, and we usually only find out years later when the evidence eventually piles up or a brave witness/whistleblower finally speaks up. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak for such an example.
COVID has been a huge benefit to China ultimately. They have gained significantly on relative terms while everyone who has a less authoritarian form of governance (like the US and Europe) has lost. This was helped in part by the CCP’s cover up and suppression of journalists reporting about the coronavirus (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/08/8037667...). That costed the rest of the world valuable time in learning about the virus, in preparing for it, and so forth. China should have voluntarily shut down all their ports much earlier to contain the virus. Instead they sat on this information, didn’t close their ports at all (waiting instead on other countries to deny traffic), and quietly hoarded supplies like PPE while no one knew any better. In the end, the CCP managed to dodge responsibility for this cover up and inaction, and instead recently jailed the brave journalist who reported on the virus for four years (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3117734/no-...). What a gross injustice.
And then there’s the fact that repeated requests to visit the Wuhan lab have been denied, and even a general visit by the WHO to explore the origins of the virus have been denied, even as late as this month (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55555466). This WHO a team was finally allowed in this week but with a whole year having passed, I’m sure any evidence that could implicate the Wuhan lab of a leak, accidental or otherwise, will have been erased.
Is there ANY reason to trust the CCP or cut them any slack on this issue? I feel like the main reason news media and individuals on social media pushed back on such speculation, on the casting of blame on China, and on referring to the virus by location, was simply due to their distaste for Trump and their willingness to attack him at any opportunity.
And people wonder why non-Americans sometimes hate the American political system..
This is a farrago of rumour and hearsay.
So Pompeo puts out something akin to gasoline on the fire of china-US relations as a "parting gift" to the Biden administration.
Folks, don't get sucked in. Threat analysis says this is not helpful, or even very informed.
Were the CCP unhelpful? Sure! Is this PR warfare helpful? Shit no!
Something can be both propaganda and factually accurate at the same time. There is no such thing as a neutral source. When it comes to China, if it's not the CCP party line then it's probably relayed through Falun Gong affiliated media.
> This is a farrago of rumour and hearsay.
I disagree. I can see two unsupported claims here:
"The U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses."
"Despite the WIV presenting itself as a civilian institution, the United States has determined that the WIV has collaborated on publications and secret projects with China’s military."
These may be true or not, but the evidence is not presented.
All other points raised are either opinion or facts that have been known to the public for a long time.
One of the first articles on covid I saw was from the Chicago School of Economics crowing about how covid was going to set China back into the 1970's. It was dismaying because it foretold how certain political factions in the US were going to respond to the threat.
There are two possibilities: that Pompey/Trump want to sabotage Biden as you suspect; or that they don’t want this intel suppressed. Regardless, the timing of the release is unlikely to be a coincidence. Sadly, the deep cleavages in US politics are going to make most people view this through partisan eyes.
I am not inclined to dismiss this entirely though:
1) There were concerns about Gain of Function research long before Covid-19. I recall it was discussed on HN even (but can’t find the exact link)
2) There have been outbreaks of SARS linked to labs.
3) China has been secretive and uncooperative with investigations and has turned its wrath against an erstwhile partner (Australia) after that country’s government called for an investigation into the origin of the virus (maybe a coincidence as well though).
I am not inclined to unquestioningly believe the same government that lied/erred terribly on WMDs in Iraq, but I also don’t think we can unquestioningly dismiss the idea that the virus escaped from a lab that was doing experiments that would be expected to produce a virus of this sort, rather than a random mutation that just happened to be in a market in the same city.
Why do you think there is a virology lab looking at zoonotic diseases in Wuhan? Is it not likely that a high prevalence of zoonotic disease there, historically, has led to specific interest? Why is the Durham county hospital causing all this coal miners black lung disease!
Why does the Liverpool school of tropical hygiene and medicine cause this huge spike in non indigenous malaria!
Seriously: the wuhan virology lab is there, because the problem is there.
I’m not so sure because Wuhan is on an alluvial plain and thus probably doesn’t have too many bats relative to other places. The han in Wuhan is the same as the Han people, so it’s a safe bet that Wuhan is a hub for culture and education. So, and I’m guessing here, a likely reason that Wuhan was chosen for SARS work is because it’s an academic hub that isn’t Shanghai or Beijing.
Why would Biden suppress this? Anyone who thinks Joe Biden is in bed with China needs to seriously adjust their priors and get off the Trump koolaid IV
A less conspiratorial take on the timing is that it's due to this:
https://time.com/5929647/who-china-pandemic-origins-covid19-...
After repeatedly denying access to the WHO team, they were finally allowed in over a year later. That doesn’t seem suspicious at all...
Remapping reality onto politics may be fun and emotionally satisfying, but it is also extremely dangerous. Scientific investigation shows not only that SARS-CoV2 came from bats, but that we should expect more viral outbreaks as human contact with wild animal populations continues to increase. The Chinese Communist Party could continue to run wild with their worst behavior and still never come close to the threat that nature itself holds over us.
I agree with your desire to draw conclusions only on an evidentiary basis, but technically there is a logical flaw in your way of thinking:
If I isolate a virus from a bat in a laboratory, and then that virus escapes my laboratory (could be due to poor disposal of specimens, inadequate disinfection procedures for employees, etc -- not necessarily intentional), it would be both true that the virus came from bats and that the virus came from my laboratory.
I'm not saying that the virus came from the Wuhan lab. I'm just saying that "it clearly came from bats" does not preclude the possibility that the virus was stored in (or spread from) a particular laboratory.
The linked statement doesn't deny that the virus came from bats, it just suggests that scientists may have been working with bats, and then one of the studied viruses escaped:
"Scientists in China have researched animal-derived coronaviruses under conditions that increased the risk for accidental and potentially unwitting exposure."