Ask HN: Is Tesla worth its current evaluation?
Three possible opinions/answers to your question:
1. Yes, because the market (based on thousands of bidders) says it is.
2. No, because in the short term Tesla will never achieve the financial success that the share price suggests, their current product is still being perfected and electric vehicles aren’t that popular yet.
3. Yes, because in the long term Tesla will survive and thrive at creating value in ways we can’t yet fully appreciate as a result of their corporate commitment to innovation and taking risks.
4. No because the future is never just simple extrapolation of the past and there are multiple external risks that are not priced in.
Yes. Cathie Wood's "golden goose" case is $4400/share by 2024 ($22,000/share if you use pre-split numbers). In the year since that prediction, Tesla has demonstrated that FSD and their ability to scale factory construction, which makes it clear that they are on-target to double production every year for the next decade.
Full disclosure: I am a shareholder. Back in May 2020, I explained why I bought heavily into TSLA in March and April: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22970810 (I bought more shares in June after writing that, bringing $TSLA to ~86% of my portfolio.)
Right now many experts are saying no. But if Tesla manages full self driving for real, the energy storage business, the solar panels business, the charging network business, the production of competitive cars in most markets, Tesla may be worth the current valuation.
You can bet your savings on the red in a Casino too. It's pretty much the same in my humble opinion.
No. Next question.