Ask HN: When do you expect life will get back to “normal”?
What I mean is:
When will stores be open again, when will we do meetups again, when will we be able to travel again? My fear is that economic impacts will end up so severe that we won't really see normal again as a result for a long, long time. I hope I'm being alarmist, but my gut tells me (and my brain) that my city is hemorrhaging cash and even with economic stimulus, jobs aren't going to come back as quickly as people think. A lot of local business owners who were doing alright (making money and paying several employees) are not at all interested in getting back to it. The risk in the next few years due to future waves of infection is too great, and government assistance is incredible here in Canada but only enough to help you limp along. That's a scary condition to run a business. I think this will be great for large companies. Jobs and economic opportunity might relatively shift towards them for quite a while. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see a significant change to isolation practices any time soon and the economic impacts seem likely to change our lives in a very noticeable way. I have this same fear. Small businesses suffer immensely while large corporations thrive. I think also based on the hiring thread last week on HN, tech companies are disproportionately unaffected. It seems like it so far, but the impacts might just be delayed. I hope that's not the case, I don't want anyone to lose their livelihood. When will stores be open again, when will we do meetups again, when will we be able to travel again? Around 10 weeks for stores and meetups, longer for travel depending on the destination. However, Covid-19 will likely be a lesson in single point of failure, supply chain dependency, and failure planning. To that end things will take decades to go back to the way they were. Companies will not be willing to accept massive losses again, so they'll change the way they operate. That will continue until the cost reductions from going back to the way things were win out. For some things, like remote working, I don't think we'll ever go back. It'll be a thing companies plan for, implement, and accept as normal after this. (I'm in the UK though, which probably makes a difference.) > For some things, like remote working, I don't think we'll ever go back. This could go two ways: (a) people realise that remote working is very doable, because they managed at short notice, during a crisis, and thus it will increase. (b) people will believe that remote work is not doable, because they didn't manage at short notice, during a crisis, and thus it will not increase. I would be very surprised if anyone who didn't handle the change well, would accept "well you realise that you changed to this overnight, with zero planning some of us have spent the last decade or so 'making it work'?" and try again in a better scenario (i.e. time to make a proper home office, time to adjust to a different way of working, etc). Given the potential cost savings for both businesses and individuals there is already an incentive to do it; this situation will force companies to make the effort and try. I'd be surprised if there are many companies that get to the end of, say, 12 weeks of quarantine and haven't figured out how to make it work at least to some extent, or at least worked out some of the things that block it so they can start working on those problems. There's a huge difference between everyone working remotely, and some. If a big chunks of your direct colleagues are in the office, the remote people will miss out on information, which will draw them to the office. Of course they will try - they're forced to because a dead or quarantined workforce isn't exactly productive. But the ongoing incentives have existed for many years, and the numbers of companies supporting true remote working has been essentially a rounding error. The problem is that these companies are adopting it because they had literally no other choice - not because they wanted to try it - so there's automatic friction there. I think a lot of society (particularly big city issues) could be reduced greatly if remote working was adopted more broadly, but I've also heard all manner of arguments about why remote working "doesn't work" for the past decade or so I've been doing it. Few weeks ago there were local reports of increased sales of teleconf gear (like webcams) thus companies and probably individuals have invested money in remote working gear. So I am hopeful that companies/people will want to get their money's worth of that equipment and keep using it. I still haven’t seen anyone change their mind on remote work. It’s all temporary. I’d love to see it though. Interesting, that you say longer for travel. To what extend is travel restricted at the moment? What happens when someone from - say - Germany flies to the UK? As far as I can see, flights can still be booked. What happens when someone from - say - Germany flies to the UK? In that case I think it's still allowed, but there are a lot of entry bans and visa restrictions in place (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to...) that probably won't be lifted for a long time. The EU allows flights from the EU, EEA and the UK, but no others, so Germany-UK happens to be allowed but there are no flights from any non-European country to Germany. Entry for non-residents isn't possible, but flights still are as far as I know. Of course very extremely reduced, but it appears you can still book tickets for some flights. (Not counting one-off government recovery flights getting tourists back home, which probably make the majority of "passenger" air travel entering the EU right now) It might also help to consider that the current circumstances are a shock to the world (including the economy) and whatever evolves as the new "normal" once everything settles down, is unlikely to be the same as before. I think as soon as serology tests become widely available and cheap, lots of people will get a "certificate of immunity" and be allowed/encouraged to return to work. My thinking is that in 3 months (i.e. around end of June), lots of people will be back to work. In the US in particular, public schools get money from the federal government conditional on administering state tests. It doesn't look like the stimulus bill is leaving them off the hook, so schools have a very big incentive to give the test by the end of the school year (around 25-June). There was no official statement that state exams are cancelled for this year, and what's more my son's teacher resumed the exam prep with the kids yesterday. So, I'm not sure when stores will open, but I give a more than 50-50 chance that schools will open at some point before the Summer vacation, maybe second half of June or early July, in order to give the state exams. This does largely depend on state. See that NYS has cancelled state exams, and is weighing the options on the graduation-requirement Regents exams: https://chalkbeat.org/posts/ny/2020/03/20/its-official-new-y... Meanwhile, NYC's mayor has suggested that it's unlikely for schools to resume this school year at all: https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/mayor-nyc-schools... Definitely depends on your region, though. I think you might be jumping the gun a bit w.r.t. serology tests -- consider that the entire United States can only complete something like 20,000 tests per day right now, we're likely going to have to wait for normal tests (like what we're doing now) to become less important before we can even begin to focus resources on serology tests. And when only a small portion of the population has caught COVID, it's still going to be very important to test flu-like illnesses and isolate contacts of infected individuals for months. You are correct. I didn't know that, and now I found the actual statement from the NY DOE http://www.nysed.gov/news/2020/statement-board-regents-chanc... As for serology tests, I may be jumping the gun, but only a bit. My employer started paying for coronavirus home test kits in the UK, with the aim of having people come back to work if they show the antibodies. They don't have anything similar in the US simply because there's no FDA approved similar kit. But this will probably change soon. Folks are estimating many weeks, even months. But consider: the doubling time is around 4-5 days. We'll hit 1M worldwide maybe Friday. 40 days after that, we'll hit 1B people. That's about the estimated total that typically get infected by a pandemic. Peak infection. Two or three weeks after that, everybody will be through it. No problem; scars and health issues; death; whatever, it'll be over. So 60 days to do anything and everything we hope to do with this. No more than that. Without mitigation, sure. But of course the deaths, overwhelmed hospitals, etc. would be horrific. Instead, we're trying to "flatten the curve" in most countries. This means we're directly trying to lower the doubling time, which means that we won't develop herd immunity the same way. Lots of pockets of never-infecteds will exist where COVID can crop up again. I'd also caution estimating based on current "confirmed case" counts. Almost every country has suffered from test shortages, and even those that haven't had shortages haven't been testing everyone -- in most cases, if you aren't having trouble breathing, you're advised to just stay at home and assume you're infected. So honestly nobody knows just how many people are infected. Flattening surely is not going to work if everybody eventually get sick from this. We'd need 3M beds for a month each patient. Divide that by the number we have, it'd take 20 years of 'flattening' to make that work. No, the reason to try and delay is only to give time for vaccines, better processes and treatments. That's the only path forward. And it isn't happening fast enough. So there will be some suffering. Ah, but the big question is how much curve-flattening stretches it out in your country of residence. Some societies will choose such that their medical infrastructure will be at 10x capacity for ten times as long rather than be at 100x capacity. Others will manage to stamp it out, only to endure subsequent flare-ups. Unconstrained doubling is only a popular policy among oligarchs in power. To be fair, they do have a lot of power... Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening. Most places. Thus my estimate. If you want to posit some slight flattening, then 70 day? No more. The terrible power of geometric growth cannot be resisted for long. You need to change the growth rules entirely to beat it. No half-measures will do it. > Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening That's not true.
"new daily deaths" are fairly flat in Italy over the last week, not doubling geometrically at all. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ If the lockdown is working in other countries, then a similar state will be reached 3 weeks afterwards. Daily new cases is down in Italy since peak on 21 March - that's a leading metric compared to deaths, although it is less precise because it can be swayed by changes in testing. Well I hope its true. The curves have shown 'levelling off' before, only to return to geometric growth when testing increases. E.g. click on a country on the left, select 'logarithmic' on the lower right and see what you think: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... Sure, more time/data is needed to know for sure. If you factor in 1 week until symptoms, another 1-2 weeks until the worst part of the illness, then yes, the effect of lock down on death rates won't be seen until 2-3 weeks have passed. This is the UK 2.5 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048 * Average time between infection and death from COVID-19 is 23 days.
https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/12454153391497052... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... So lockdown won't be reflected in death rates until _over_ 3 weeks have passed. This is the UK, 3 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003 Second this. https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data This shows an "unexpected" inflection point starting March 28 which slowed the USA death growth from 2.7 day doubling to 3.4 days doubling. Even at that slower rate 900 million Americans would be dead by the end of May, so obviously there will be a major slowdown in deaths over the next 8 weeks. https://neherlab.org/covid19/ indicates maybe sometime between July and October things will normalize (ICU's will no longer be over capacity). https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ The phase space plot from Johns Hopkins dataset still shows no recent improvement of trajectory, in contrast to the NYT dataset. > 900 million Americans
That's a lot of Americans! My tentative guess is around June. It seems like the ramp up is slowing down after a while in a lot of countries. Look at the 'New Daily Cases' graphs for separate countries[0].
So maybe another ~1 month or so of ramp-up and then after a while some ramp down. Maybe a bit worse in the US than elsewhere. Of course, the impact will be felt for a long time. I am in the process of asking a lot of people that exact question. Answer ranges are 3-18 months with various degrees of support. Average so far around 6-9 months. Even if it doesn't, we can be OK. What I wrote about climate change applies to other disastrous things. It helps me more than I can easily say.
http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854581820.html (a simple site) Towards the end of this year, early next year. But nothing will be like before in any case. In terms of social interaction, maybe somewhere in June. Economically, that will hurt for years to come. A lot of people seem to hope the vaccine will lead to the end of the pandemic, but that won't happen necessarily. That's not what ended the Spanish Flu pandemic. There's a limit on how far pandemics can go, even considering mutations. It's funny that when we try to lecture people about pyramid schemes, we always say : "you'll run out of people on Earth pretty quickly to sustain this scheme", but when it comes to pandemics, we forget this advice. 12-18 months I’m not waiting 18 months to see my Abuela, sir. She only has a few years left. If your grandmother is this old and you go see her before the end of the quarantine, she may only has a few month left. You want to see her? Teach her how to use a video conferencing tool. I've got some bad news for you: until you have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (early 2021 soonest) or have had it and fully recovered and then waited a bit, it would be a bad idea for you to travel to see an elderly relative. It would be selfish and irresponsible to do that. My university expects that it will be over by June, but I don't think so... After 2 years - that's my best guess. We need a vaccine before any: live concerts, bars, beaches, or other mass social gatherings can be resumed. That could be a year or more. Day-to-day: When there's a vaccine, in about 18-36 months. If you look at the data, there will likely be multiple lockdowns in order to "reset the clock" on the pandemic curve, but it will probably be like Groundhog Day to lesser degrees over-and-over again with smaller pandemic curves until there's a vaccine. Overall, a million dead globally before a vaccine is deployed. Economically: 10 years (a long time) because bouncing back isn't possible when ancillary businesses close and cause others to close. Right now, unemployment is going to around 35% whereas the Great Depression peaked at around 23-25%. This is, in essence, the Greater Depression. There were most recently structural problems and the global economy was overdue for a contraction, but not to the depths as being experienced without a pandemic; in essence, it is a forcing function that artificially-depresses economic activity in a lasting manner. Overall: Not everything will be the same, but some things will. Don't let fear or magical wishful-thinking be guiding forces. "The dance" will continue until there is widespread vaccination https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-th... How long will millions of people accept being on house arrest? If "millions of people" stop accepting house arrest tomorrow, then things won't "get back to normal", things will become even further from normal. 3 years. Until vaccine and all the mutations of COVID19 are brought under control, this will continue. A few weeks. This is an over-reaction. The push for suppressing entire populations for months and years are coming from those that want to dis-empower these populations the rest of the time. If by "normal" you mean the neo-liberal/neo-marxist agenda "progressing"... that is increasingly unlikely Hardly an over-reaction with 100.000 expected deaths.
Of course earlier actions might have prevented this tragedy. No, that's still an open question. We won't really know until much more analysis is done, but there's a ton of reasons to suspect an over-reaction now. See some of the daily update links here: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ The basic problem is confused data e.g. 100,000 deaths expected from what? Given how often COVID-19 seems to give people a little push over an edge they were very close to anyway, it's extremely hard to even define what a C19 death means, let alone do so in a way that's comparable across countries. Meanwhile healthcare systems have been scaling up a lot but actually the projected collapse isn't close to being here even in Italy, where many hospitals are still mostly empty outside the core hotspots (leading to a question of whether it's not ventilator capacity that's needed but patient transfer capacity). And where hospitals are under pressure it may be partly due to huge numbers of staff isolating themselves as they tested positive, sometimes with no symptoms (i.e. could be false positives?). Hospitals can be overwhelmed even by normal admissions if 30% of the staff are gone due to self-isolation. If you disregard people dying from COVID-19 because they would have died anyway within a few years, then you may come to that conclusion. I don't consider it ethical to do that. Quite the contrary. Yes, earlier actions definitely should have been taken. Interestingly, there seems to be a collective delusion developing about when the action could of/should of been taken. Late January...early February...really? That long? What is the neo-liberal/neo-marxist agenda? Also, the state of quarantine is happening at a global level, not just the US. I'm not in the U.S. And I'm not interested in starting a flame-war. By all means, research these ideologies yourself. I was answering the poster's question with my opinion. You do not have to like it. > not interested in starting a flame-war. Me neither - my intention was to pose a neutrally-worded question, which I think I did. Ah, the tried and true method of bringing up an extremely controversial opinion and then gaslighting people who respond into thinking they're the ones starting a flame war. > the neo-liberal/neo-marxist agenda ... And I'm not interested in starting a flame-war. Non-sequitur. “Liberal” and “marxist” in a single sentence... What gives. At least 150 years of politics. The neoliberals and neomarxiists want opposite things. Wow a textbook example of dog whistling on HN of all places! I never thought I'd see the day... The comment is not dog whistling...people need to stop misusing political terminology. It renders words meaningless. Considering that you depend upon hiding behind words, it is best not to deconstruct your own shield. Conflating neoliberalism and neomarxism together is textbook dog whistling. I don't know of anyone on earth who even identifies as a "neomarxist" but we all know what using those terms interchangeably means for ones held political ideology... Oh, what textbook are you reading? You not being aware of something does not mean it does not exist. What is this political ideology of mine you are identifying?