Assume only 10% of the current software will be relevant after 10 years
Which Ones? The only ones I am willing to wager on are corporate infrastructure related software and domain specific software (like CAD tools, movie animation tools etc). For similar legacy reasons, I am willing to add Linux derivatives and GNU C compiler, but won't wager on them. Thanks to Minecraft, I expect a whole new batch of Java developers over the next several years. Didn't it get ported after MS bought it? It got ported for Consoles/Mobile. Porting the PC version would cause every existing mod to stop working, which would be huge, I can't think of a single person I know who plays stock Minecraft. It also got ported for Windows, that's why it is in "beta" for now at Windows Store. It's being rewritten in C++. vim, emacs, linux, chrome, jvm, windows, directx, visual studio, javascript, C++, google, facebook, aws, gcc, llvm, photoshop. TCP/IP/Ethernet In addition to what others have said: Lisp and Haskell will still be around and relevant. (Relevant being defined as "as relevant as they are today or better", not as "large fractions of new software being written in them".) Hate to say it, but I'd bet that Windows in some form will still be around, with an API that is recognizably similar to today's. Excel. Going on 30 year strong. GNU tools. I expect them to be relevant longer than I am. Looking at what's already been around for >10 years: vim, emacs, linux, windows, mac os x, nethack (plus a whole stack of programming languages like C). That's an excellent observation. Probably a better question would be what software younger than 10 years will still be around in 10 years. I'm thinking Go, Rust, Servo, DeepMind, Uber, Slack, Android, iOS (not sure about the age of the last 2), all the cloud providers' software, and a lot of other stuff. Probably docker as well. Linux TeX/LaTeX Quickbooks on a Windows 7 machine Containers (not Docker per se but descendants of it and competitors). Driverless vehicles Matlab/Simulink.
Brilliant tool, and lots of brainpower and money being invested in continuously developing it. Fucking Facebook probably. C compilers UEFI NaCl crypto / libsodium HTTP/2+ over QUIC over UDP wasm photoshop, autocad