bturtel

Recent Submissions

1. 1. ▲ Proper Scoring Rules Shape LLM Forecasting (arxiv.org) 3 points · 24 days ago · 0 comments
2. 2. ▲ A small economic forecaster trained from raw Fed PDFs beat GPT-5 (blog.lightningrod.ai) 5 points · 5 months ago · 0 comments
3. 3. ▲ Show HN: Open-source LLM and dataset for sports forecasting (Pro Golf) (huggingface.co) 7 points · 7 months ago · 0 comments
4. 4. ▲ Show HN: Trained an LLM to predict "What will Trump do?" (huggingface.co) 10 points · 7 months ago · 2 comments
5. 5. ▲ What can't be automated? The Last Human Bottleneck (bturtel.substack.com) 2 points · 7 months ago · 0 comments
6. 6. ▲ Future-as-Label: Scalable Supervision from Real-World Outcomes (arxiv.org) 17 points · 8 months ago · 0 comments
7. 7. ▲ TMLR: Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future (openreview.net) 4 points · 9 months ago · 1 comment
8. 8. ▲ Natural Selection Is Already Shaping AI (bturtel.substack.com) 2 points · 10 months ago · 0 comments
9. 9. ▲ Flooding the AI Frontier (bturtel.substack.com) 2 points · 1 year ago · 0 comments
10. 10. ▲ Foresight-32B Beats Frontier LLMs on Live Polymarket Predictions (blog.lightningrod.ai) 6 points · 1 year ago · 0 comments