Insights

DoJ investigation adds uncertainty to Fed leadership transition

The Federal Reserve announced that the Department of Justice (DoJ) has launched a criminal investigation into Chair Powell’s June 2025 testimony to Congress regarding the Fed’s building renovations. While the investigation adds uncertainty to the timeline of potential leadership changes at the Fed, any adjustments to the policy-making framework are likely to be gradual. We maintain our view that labor market weakness will drive an additional cut in 1Q26.

Trump announces one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates

Bank earnings season kicks off this week. We expect the proposed interest rate cap to be a key topic on earnings calls.

Potential policy pivot

Supreme Court decides fate of IEEPA tariffs

US-China tariffs: De-escalation post Xi-Trump meeting

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