A collapsing birth rate and longer life expectancy are creating a pensions timebomb that could reshape retirement for future generations
The Times
Children who are in primary school today could face working until they are 75 before receiving a state pension, a think tank has warned.
Declining birth rates combined with rising life expectancy are forcing the country off a “demographic cliff edge”, according to a report by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ).
Analysis in the report shows that in 1970 there were four working-age people for every pensioner, a figure that dropped to 3.5 by 2025. If current trends continue, this ratio could drop to around two workers per pensioner within a century.
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Given the state pension system is funded by taxpayers, the decrease in people of working age compared to pensioners would make it unsustainable, the CSJ warns.
If the government attempted to maintain today’s ratio of workers to pensioners, the state pension age would need to rise steadily over the coming decades, with analysis suggesting children aged eight and under may not retire until they are 75.
Edward Davies, the research director for the CSJ, said: “When fewer children are born, fewer workers enter the labour force, and the burden of supporting an ageing population falls on a shrinking number of taxpayers.
“If we try to maintain today’s balance between workers and pensioners, children in school today could be working well into their seventies before they qualify for a state pension. This reflects a catastrophic failure to support the next generation of families.”
The CSJ also notes that high levels of immigration have temporarily slowed the demographic shift but cannot solve underlying problems such as ageing and falling fertility.
By 2043, the number of people aged over 65 in Britain will have increased from 13 million to more than 17 million, the CSJ finds.
Meanwhile, Britain’s birth rate has fallen from three children per woman in the 1960s to 1.4 in 2024, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. A replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed to maintain population size, which the CSJ says would require around 250,000 additional births per year.
The falling birth rate is largely driven by a rising number of women who never become mothers, often because economic and social pressures delay family formation, the report warns. Further analysis shows that around three million women aged 16 to 45 today are projected not to have children at all if current trends continue.
“Most young people still want children, but too many feel unable to have them,” Davies said. “If we want a sustainable economy and a society that cares properly for the elderly, we must start taking family seriously again.”