Europe is facing a dramatic synoptic turnaround sweeping across the continent, driven by a powerful upper-level subtropical ridge building northward from Africa. A classic, highly anomalous and powerful Heat Dome has parked over Western and Central Europe.
This atmospheric block acts as a physical lid, trapping a subsiding air mass beneath it. The intense solar radiation combined with compression forces the air, intensifying heat towards the surface.
For late May, this is a historic, record-shattering heatwave. An extraordinary thermodynamic plume sends a massive core of extreme warmth over Spain, Portugal, Ireland, the UK, France, and Germany. Temperatures are soaring by 12-16 °C above long-term climatological norms.
The strongest Heat Dome so far in 2026 is delivering mid-summer heat to millions of people well ahead of schedule. It is also well visible on the satellites, as a large blocking with drier air masses is gradually expanding north.
Over the past weekend, record-breaking temperatures were already being recorded across parts of Western Europe. Weather stations recorded the UK’s hottest May day in nearly 80 years, with London hitting 32.3 °C.
Meanwhile, the southern and southwestern regions of Portugal, Spain, and France are experiencing extreme daytime highs of 35°C to 38°C. Italy recorded 31-34 °C on Sunday; it was 30-33 °C in Germany, around the Alps, and in parts of the Balkans.
Here is a chart for Sunday, May 24th. Numerous weather stations across Germany, France, Benelux, Ireland, and the UK have already broken their daily high-temperature records.
The pink dots represent the highest temperature these stations have ever recorded on May 24th; those were shattered today.
Air mass will be even hotter in the coming days for many countries, as the Heat Dome aloft intensifies further. Because this pattern restricts vertical mixing and cloud cover, maximum and minimum temperatures alike will challenge historical monthly records across hundreds of stations in Western Europe.
Here are the Top 10 all-time Highs for countries in Western Europe for the month of May:
The Highest May temperatures recorded in England and the UK:
- 32.8 °C in Camden Square, Regent’s Park, London, and Tunbridge Wells, Kent on 29th May, 1944
- 30.6 °C in Wisley, Surrey on 22nd May, 1922
- 30.5 °C in Frittenden, Kent on 23rd May, 2026
- 29.9 °C in St James’s Park, London on 16th May, 1969
- 29.7 °C in Lossiemouth, Scotland on 25th May, 2012
- 29.4 °C in Northolt, London on 25th May, 1978
- 29.3 °C in Kew Gardens, London on 1st May, 2025
- 29.2 °C in Heathrow, London, in May 1992
These are the Highest May Temperatures across France:
- 36.2 °C in Dax on 21st May, 2022
- 35.7 °C in Biarritz on 21st May, 2022
- 35.4 °C in Mont-de-Marsan on 21st May, 2022
- 35.2 °C in the Toulouse area in May, 2022
- 34.9 °C in Albi on 18th May, 2022
- 34.7 °C in Montélimar on 18th May, 2022
- 34.5 °C in the Bordeaux region in May, 2022
- 34.3 °C in Agen in May, 2022
- 33.9 °C in Tours on 30th May, 2025
- 33.4 °C in the Nantes region in May, 2022
These are the Highest May Temperatures across Germany:
- 39.2 °C in the Saarland region in May 1947
- 38.6 °C in the Karlsruhe area in May, 2005
- 37.8 °C in the Frankfurt region in May, 2005
- 37.2 °C in Mannheim in May, 2005
- 36.9 °C in the Berlin region in May, 1892
- 36.7 °C in the Cologne region in May, 2005
- 36.5 °C in the Stuttgart area in May, 2005
- 36.1 °C in the Bavaria region in May, 2003
- 35.8 °C in the Leipzig region in May, 2017
- 35.5 °C in Berlin on 28th May, 1892
These are the Highest May Temperatures across Benelux:
- 38.2 °C in Belgium, Begijnendijk in May, 1947
- 38.0 °C in Luxembourg, Remich region in May, 1947
- 37.8 °C in the Netherlands, Eindhoven region in May 1947
- 37.1 °C in Belgium, Brussels region in May, 2005
- 36.9 °C in the Netherlands, Maastricht area in May 2005
- 36.7 °C in Luxembourg, Luxembourg Airport in May, 2005
- 36.5 °C in Belgium, Liège region in May, 2022
- 36.3 °C in the Netherlands, Limburg in May, 2022
- 35.9 °C in Luxembourg, Steinsel in May, 2022
- 35.7 °C in Belgium, Antwerp region in May, 1922
This final week of May 2026, the temperatures across Western Europe will be around 12-16 °C above the long-term average, which is staggeringly high for late May.
The meteogram below for Paris, France, represents how anomalous the heatwave will be.
Before we dig into the details of this historic, unusually early-season heatwave in Europe, let’s examine the main driver behind these extensive warm waves and heatwaves in general.
What is a Heat Dome?
When significant, record-breaking heatwaves occurred in Europe, the United States, and Canada in the past, the Heat Dome was a contributing factor. The heat dome is usually the dominant feature of summer weather patterns on both continents.
We refer to this phenomenon as a heat dome when extremely high temperatures develop. Here’s how it works and why understanding it on a broader scale is essential.
The upper-level ridge pattern, or very warm air mass in the higher altitudes, also known as the Upper High (or blocking High), usually forms the heat dome. This weather pattern brings high, and sometimes record-breaking, temperatures to the region below.
This term is used when a broad area of high-pressure air parks over a large portion of the continent. If the event is remarkably stable and extreme, it usually lasts several days or weeks.
The heat dome works like a lid on a pot. The extensive dome traps warm air at all levels underneath, with layers sinking toward the ground. Therefore, the air mass becomes anomalously warm at the lowest elevations and extremely hot near the surface.
How does a heat dome impact the life underneath?
Excessive heat in heat domes can significantly impact human health and be dangerous to particularly vulnerable populations, such as elderly individuals, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions that can be worsened by extreme heat.
Due to prolonged exposure to high temperatures, construction workers, farmers, and other long-hour outdoor workers are at increased risk of heat-related illnesses. People living in poverty are also more susceptible to the fatalities of heat domes, as their houses are often built with heat-trapping surfaces such as concrete and asbestos.
Heat exhaustion occurs with prolonged exposure to high temperatures. It leads to dehydration, dizziness, and, in more severe cases, heat exhaustion can progress to heat stroke.
High relative humidity during a heatwave can also significantly affect the body. For this reason, we use a Heat Index to represent the perceived feel of scorching-hot temperatures and high humidity. It illustrates the natural relationship between temperature and humidity.
A historic Heat Dome expands over Western and Central Europe
After the dramatic synoptic turnaround of the weather pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe, a powerful blocking High has developed a warm plume from northwest Africa into southwestern and western Europe in recent days.
The extensive upper-level ridge now dominates most of the European continent and is forecast to persist through the remainder of May. The Heat Dome is now fully mature over Europe.
The sinking air within the heat dome has also led to rising pressure beneath it, thereby developing a strong surface high-pressure system centered over the heart of Europe as the final week of May begins.
The upper ridge aloft will bring well-above-normal surface pressure for most of the continent, except for the far north and northwest of Europe (northern Scandinavia and Iceland), where some upper waves will travel along the edge of the ridge.
The significantly warmer air mass will remain across southwestern, Western, and Central Europe for most of the week.
Until the next weekend, the warmest and most anomalous air masses will be over Spain, Portugal, France, Benelux, Germany, the UK, and Ireland. Temperatures are forecast to gradually rise over central Europe and the Balkans throughout the week.
Near-surface temperature anomalies will be extreme in late May and contribute to more daily temperature records, with a high potential to shatter all-time station highs in many countries. The 2m temperature anomaly below for France represents a staggering heatwave with regions more than 16 °C above norms.
In general, temperatures will be 12-16 °C above normal for late May, from Spain across Portugal to Benelux and south-western Germany.
Therefore, daily highs will remain in the low to mid-30s in many regions. Many stations will see daytime highs a few degrees higher than last weekend.
Iberia and France could challenge the 40 °C mark for the first time in 2026, mid-30s for most countries across West-Central Europe
With such a powerful upper-level ridge and Heat Dome aloft, temperatures will continue reaching extremely high values for late May.
Iberian Peninsula – Spain and Portugal
The highest temperatures for Spain and Portugal are forecast from Monday through Friday, with Tuesday and Thursday likely being the hottest days. Temperatures will reach mid to upper-30s across south-central Portugal and south-southwestern Spain.
Nonetheless, there is some potential for temperatures to reach the 40 °C threshold during May, which is extremely high. Tuesday will also be very hot across Lisbon, thanks to more easterly winds bringing heat from the drier interior land.
France
The extreme late-May heatwave over France will continue this week, with peak daytime temperatures climbing into the upper 30s for many parts of the country and could approach the 40 °C in the southwest.
The highest daytime peaks are most likely to occur on Wednesday and Thursday. Hundreds of all-time high temperatures will be broken this week across France.
Ireland and the UK
It definitely feels like mid-summer across Ireland and the UK this week; after 30-32 °C on Sunday, temperatures are forecast to climb even higher in the coming days.
Some high-resolution models are hinting at astonishing daytime highs over southern England, pushing peak hours into the 35-37 °C range. This is a few degrees higher than it has ever been recorded in May.
These temperatures are about 12-18 °C above long-term norms, a staggering anomaly for late May. This is why numerous station records are being broken this week.
It will also be significantly warmer than normal across southern Ireland, with daytime highs in the upper 20s and approaching 30 °C on Tuesday.
Germany and Benelux
Temperatures across Germany, Benelux, and around the Alps will be in the low to mid 30s over the next few days, with the highest temperatures forecast over Belgium, Luxembourg, and south-southwestern Germany.
The heatwave will extend at least until Thursday.
Mediterranean, Italy, and the Balkans
Temperatures will continue into the mid-30s across the Mediterranean region, Italy, central Europe, and the Balkans from Monday and remain this high throughout the remainder of the month.
The North-central Balkans and the northern Italian plains are likely to exceed 35 °C around mid-week, also challenging some station records in the days ahead.
We continue monitoring the ongoing historic heatwave and any potential pattern changes as we head into the first month of meteorological summer next week. Stay tuned for the updates.
Windy, Pivotal Weather, and WXcharts provided images used in this article.
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