Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo

Editor’s summary

Why was the year 2023 so much warmer than expected? Anthropogenic forcing and El Niño have been suggested as at least part of the reason, but they cannot account for the magnitude of the temperature jump. Goessling et al. identify another cause: a record-low planetary albedo caused mainly by reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics. If this shift represents an excursion into a new normal, our future could be hotter faster than expected. —Jesse Smith

Abstract

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5 kelvin above the preindustrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17 kelvin. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers, including anthropogenic warming and the El Niño onset, fall short by about 0.2 kelvin in explaining the temperature rise. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we identified a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multiannual trend. Further exploring the low-cloud trend and understanding how much of it is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the present and expected future warming.

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