We thank Gustavo Ventura for valuable comments and suggestions. Generative AI was used for improving the readability of text, for helping with coding the statistical model, and for checking the final paper for technical accurary (Refine.ink). Paper prepared for Annual Reviews of Economics, DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-081026-024323. The usual disclaimer applies. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.