The Simple Macroeconomics of AI

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Paper prepared for Economic Policy. I am grateful to Can Yeşildere for phenomenal research assistance, and to Leonardo Bursztyn, Mert Demirer, Lauren Fahey, Roberto Galbiati, Isabelle Méjean, Shakked Noy, Sida Peng, Julia Regier, and Whitney Zhang as well as participants in the MIT Solow Memorial conference and the Economic Policy conference for useful comments. I am especially grateful to my discussants, David Hémous and Benoît Coeuré, for insightful comments and suggestions. I thank Pamela Mishkin and Daniel Rock for generously sharing their data on AI exposure. I am also heavily indebted to my collaborators on several projects related to these topics, David Autor, Simon Johnson and Pascual Restrepo, from whom I learned a great deal and who have also given me very useful comments on the current draft. Financial support from the Hewlett Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. All remaining errors are mine. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.