References
Fretwell, P. et al. Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica. Cryosphere 7, 375–393 (2013).
Turney, C. S. M. et al. Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 3996–4006 (2020).
Bueler, E. & Brown, J. Shallow shelf approximation as a ‘sliding law’ in a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model. J. Geophys. Res. 114, F03008 (2009).
Winkelmann, R. et al. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK)—Part 1: Model description. Cryosphere 5, 715–726 (2011).
PISM, a Parallel Ice Sheet Model: User’s Manual http://pism-docs.org/ (2017).
The IMBIE Team. Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature 558, 219–222 (2018).
Rignot, E. et al. Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 1095–1103 (2019).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
Frieler, K. et al. Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 348–352 (2015).
Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Martin, M. A. & Frieler, K. Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall. Nature 492, 239–242 (2012).
Weertman, J. Stability of ice-age ice sheets. J. Geophys. Res. 66, 3783–3792 (1961).
Oerlemans, J. Some basic experiments with a vertically-integrated ice-sheet model. Tellus 33, 1–11 (1981).
Huybrechts, P. et al. Response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multi-millennial greenhouse warming in the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM. Surv. Geophys. 32, 397–416 (2011).
Levermann, A. & Winkelmann, R. A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets. Cryosphere 10, 1799–1807 (2016).
Clarke, G. K. C., Nitsan, U. & Paterson, W. S. B. Strain heating and creep instability in glaciers and ice sheets. Rev. Geophys. 15, 235–247 (1977).
Weertman, J. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. J. Glaciol. 13, 3–11 (1974).
Mercer, J. H. West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster. Nature 271, 321–325 (1978).
Gudmundsson, G. H., Krug, J., Durand, G., Favier, L. & Gagliardini, O. The stability of grounding lines on retrograde slopes. Cryosphere 6, 1497–1505 (2012).
Gomez, N., Pollard, D. & Holland, D. Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss. Nat. Commun. 6, 8798 (2015).
Fyke, J., Sergienko, O., Löfverström, M., Price, S. F. & Lenaerts, J. T. M. An overview of interactions and feedbacks between ice sheets and the Earth system. Rev. Geophys. 56, 361–408 (2018).
Golledge, N. R. et al. The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise. Nature 526, 421–425 (2015).
Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Ridgwell, A. & Caldeira, K. Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sci. Adv. 1, e1500589 (2015).
Robinson, A., Calov, R. & Ganopolski, A. Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2, 429–432 (2012).
Huybrechts, P. Formation and disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheet. Ann. Glaciol. 20, 336–340 (1994).
DeConto, R. M. & Pollard, D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591–597 (2016).
Sutter, J., Gierz, P., Grosfeld, K., Thoma, M. & Lohmann, G. Ocean temperature thresholds for Last Interglacial West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 2675–2682 (2016).
Golledge, N. R., Levy, R. H., McKay, R. M. & Naish, T. R. East Antarctic ice sheet most vulnerable to Weddell Sea warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 2343–2351 (2017).
Pattyn, F. et al. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 1053–1061 (2018).
Pollard, D. & DeConto, R. M. Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years. Nature 458, 329–332 (2009).
Alley, R. B. et al. Oceanic forcing of ice-sheet retreat: West Antarctica and more. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 43, 207–231 (2015).
Dutton, A. et al. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods. Science 349, aaa4019 (2015).
Pollard, D. & DeConto, R. M. Hysteresis in Cenozoic Antarctic ice-sheet variations. Glob. Planet. Change 45, 9–21 (2005).
Gasson, E. G. W., DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D. & Levy, R. Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 3459–3464 (2016).
Liu, Z. et al. Global cooling during the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition. Science 323, 1187–1190 (2009).
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Russell, G. & Kharecha, P. Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 371, 20120294 (2013).
Rahmstorf, S. & England, M. H. Influence of Southern Hemisphere winds on North Atlantic Deep Water flow. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 27, 2040–2054 (1997).
Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R. & Levermann, A. Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)—Part 1: Boundary conditions and climatic forcing. Cryosphere 14, 599–632 (2020).
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F. & Aoki, S. Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters. Science 346, 1227–1231 (2014).
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E. & Scheuchl, B. Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 1576–1584 (2014).
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H. & Scheuchl, B. Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3502–3509 (2014).
Favier, L. et al. Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 117–121 (2014).
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E. & Medley, B. Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica. Science 344, 735–738 (2014).
Naish, T. R. et al. Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations. Nature 458, 322–328 (2009).
Levermann, A. et al. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 13745–13750 (2013).
Mengel, M. & Levermann, A. Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 451–455 (2014).
Golledge, N. R. et al. Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma. Clim. Past 13, 959–975 (2017).
Golledge, N. R. et al. Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt. Nature 566, 65–72 (2019).
Bassis, J. N. & Walker, C. C. Upper and lower limits on the stability of calving glaciers from the yield strength envelope of ice. Proc. R. Soc. A 468, 913–931 (2012).
Edwards, T. L. et al. Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability. Nature 566, 58–64 (2019).
Meredith, M. et al. Polar regions. In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ (in the press).
Schellnhuber, H. J., Rahmstorf, S. & Winkelmann, R. Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 649–653 (2016).
Lenton, T. M. et al. Climate tipping points—too risky to bet against. Nature 575, 592–595 (2019).
Lliboutry, L. A. & Duval, P. Various isotropic and anisotropic ices found in glaciers and polar ice caps and their corresponding rheologies. Ann. Geophys. 3, 207–224 (1985).
Feldmann, J., Albrecht, T., Khroulev, C., Pattyn, F. & Levermann, A. Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model compared with a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison. J. Glaciol. 60, 353–360 (2014).
Schoof, C. & Hindmarsh, R. C. A. Thin-film flows with wall slip: an asymptotic analysis of higher order glacier flow models. Q. J. Mech. Appl. Math. 63, 73–114 (2010).
Cuffey, K. M. & Paterson, W. S. B. The Physics of Glaciers 4th edn (Elsevier, Academic Press, 2010).
Bueler, E. & van Pelt, W. Mass-conserving subglacial hydrology in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model version 0.6. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 1613–1635 (2015).
Lingle, C. S. & Clark, J. A. A numerical model of interactions between a marine ice-sheet and the solid Earth: application to a West Antarctic ice stream. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 90, 1100–1114 (1985).
Bueler, E., Lingle, C. S. & Brown, J. Fast computation of a viscoelastic deformable Earth model for ice-sheet simulations. Ann. Glaciol. 46, 97–105 (2007).
Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011).
van Wessem, J. M. et al. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2—Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016). Cryosphere 12, 1479–1498 (2018).
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X. & Winkelmann, R. Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO. Cryosphere 12, 1969–1985 (2018).
Olbers, D. & Hellmer, H. A box model of circulation and melting in ice shelf caverns. Ocean Dyn. 60, 141–153 (2010).
Levermann, A. et al. Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat. Cryosphere 6, 273–286 (2012).
Albrecht, T., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., Winkelmann, R. & Levermann, A. Parameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts. Cryosphere 5, 35–44 (2011).
Cuffey, K. M. et al. Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 14249–14254 (2016).
Seroussi, H. et al. initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6. Cryosphere 13, 1441–1471 (2019).
Li, C., von Storch, J.-S. & Marotzke, J. Deep-ocean heat uptake and equilibrium climate response. Clim. Dyn. 40, 1071–1086 (2013).
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J. & Scheuchl, B. Ice flow of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science 333, 1427–1430 (2011).