Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)

Spiegelhalter, David

2 min read Original article ↗

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past, or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ‘conscious awareness of ignorance’1 — be it of the weather tomorrow, the next Premier League champions, the climate in 2100 or the identity of our ancient ancestors.

Updates & Corrections

  • Correction 18 December 2024: The picture caption in this story did not accurately capture the circumstances surrounding the Cuba invasion.

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Competing Interests

The author declares no competing interests.