When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
08 Sep 2027
08 Sep 2027
(11 Sep 2026 - 28 Jan 2030)
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Delays
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
Hastens
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Delays
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Delays
AI become student of arts university in Vienna
Delays
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Delays
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
Hastens
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Delays
AI become student of arts university in Vienna
Delays
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Delays