Jakub Bielikowski
Published Mar 25, 2022
Back in the 2016 I was sitting on a meeting in the rather obscure office building in Moscow, talking with the client's IT directors. As a team we offered them special Cloud solution. Kind of on-prem cloud-enabling machine. Then Russian executives asked a question:
"It is all good, but what if the US government imposes sanctions and our service is cut off?"
"Why would anyone do it?" We asked in return.
It was 2 years after Crimean invasion, that nasty piece almost forgotten. No-one have thought that the IT future in Russia may be anything but sunny. Next years SAP even opened a Russia Cloud service centre in cooperation with MTS. So we all laughed.
The clients were a bit more concerned saying "our government wants us to use Russian technology instead", but it was obvious that no-one had considered that a serious option. Especially as Russian was really "Chinese assembled in Russia".
Ukraine War consequences
Third day into the war, I saw a news about Oracle pulling out of Russia. So did SAP. And Microsoft stopped new contracts... Good move!
However, that six years old question asked by Russian director comes back. What about their clients in Russia? Where does the Cloud fit? Do the customers still have access to Cloud? For how long? What will happen with SAP Cloud Centere? What about software client support - if the support contract is up for renewal, will it be renewed now?
What about those on-premises Cloud solutions? All big Cloud vendors had in their offer this special cloud machines. Installed at client premises, with scaling up and (less likely) scaling down capabilities. Bought as a service. Managed and maintained remotely. How those kind of equipment will function under sanctions regime?
What about "regular" Cloud access? Would Russian businesses be able to access SaaS, PaaS and IaaS services they bought? Would they be able to extend it? What about pay as you go services. Who knows?
One may say - Russians got what they asked for.
However, that brings similar question for governments and businesses worldwide.
Not for the Europe, US, Canada, Australia and their allies.
But for semi-democracies or authoritarian regimes in Africa, Asia, Latin America it is a question.
All of the sudden it turned out that the technology DOES have a nationality.
Would they be able to use the public Cloud services when then step on the US toes? If they have bought those Cloud on Premises solutions, operated by the vendor, how would it affect their operations continuity? Today's everything fine, what about tomorrow?
Chinese shadow
When we talked in Africa there was a recognition that the service does not have to come from the West. It can come from China. In fact Huawei is offering same solution: "cloud on premises" machines. We have dismissed them as not a serious competitor.
But, let me ask the question. If you are responsible for your not-so-democratic country IT - would you now completely rely on the US-owned Cloud? Or would you rather have both US and Chinese machines so they can take over from each other? Is that even possible?
Tricky isn't it?
And, if I am a simple business owner in, say, Latin America - could I rely completely on the Cloud services?
Probably yes. The benefits far outweigh any potential risk.
Unless, I am running a big state-aligned conglomerate. In a not-so-democratic country. Maybe then I should be careful... But do I have a choice?
Will China step into the market more aggressively now? Will there be a consequent shift in power in the Cloud market?
Anonymous shadow
We have heard about Anonymous successes in attacking Russia IT estate.
We applauded.
Anonymous seemed to be far more successful than Kremlin-bases hackers, whose attacks on Ukraine IT looked half-hearted or just badly executed. Even so, you don't want to be one on Kremlin's cyber attack receiving end.
But the questions pop up. Were the Anonymous unaided? Or were they turned into a political weapon? Was there really a "net neutrality" maintained? Has Cloud use made their job easier or more difficult?
We are unlikely to find out. But the question of a political risk is back on a table. It is now quite obvious that technology ownership is not country-neutral, as we somehow naively assumed few months ago.
One month into the war, the very sunny Cloud future looks slightly hmm, cloudy...
That article represents my private view only.
#Russia #Ukraine #Cloud #warinukraine
