The Coming Technological Stagnation

I'm Ken from Singapore, most recently a RPA (robotic process automation) architect with AI Singapore, a government-funded initiative to build local artificial intelligence capabilities.

This post shares a view that we are likely heading into a period of technological stagnation. Stagnation not in the sense where technological progress comes to a standstill. But more of the parabolic technological acceleration (that we are now familiar with) coming to an end. So, please don't worry about an AI sentient being ruling over us anytime soon. Also, there's no real value in embracing tech or AI or machine learning just because it's hot (or cool).

Why should you listen to me? You shouldn't - it is futile to try to predict the future, but considering a viewpoint that is contrary to mainstream beliefs allows you to weigh for yourself and decide on actions (or non-actions) that you could take today.

The dominant narrative today is with compounding technological advances we are going to see major breakthroughs that will disrupt status quo in most fabrics of human civilisation. The leading theme would be AI (artificial intelligence) and the coming of AGI (artificial general intelligence) - eventually leading to a dystopian or utopian world where there is a superpower being we created that is smarter than the whole of humanity combined.

THE GOOD NEWS - well, I'm going to tell you that this outcome is unlikely to happen, at least during our lifetimes. It is easy to draw sensational parallels between current data-driven AI revolution to the industrial revolution, but fundamentals are different.

In my view, the basis of the industrial revolution is that we have mastered control over the mechanical force, thereby delegating mechanical physical work to the machines - through steam engines, combustion engines to the downstream applications such as airplanes or spaceships. With that mastery, we can bring into existence what was previously impossible with human muscles (or animal muscles). Fundamentally, a mechanical force is a vector quantity of a certain magnitude combined with a certain direction. Mastery of the generation and control of that force leads to the inevitable outcome of the industrial revolution.

However, have we today mastered intelligence? I don't think so. The greatest intelligence we have been able to observe so far is life on earth itself. And this greatest intelligence already comes 'pre-packaged' ready for this world. From the moment our 23 pairs of chromosomes first come together to the moment life grows into adulthood, much of the wisdom is already 'pre-coded' into us. For example, do we need to learn how to breathe? Or how fast to pump our heart? Or to set a timer to remind us to drink water so that our bodies stay adequately hydrated? None of these are needed, because the most critical biological functions of life already happen by themselves without our conscious actions or thoughts. With this pre-built genetic intelligence comes the human mind which allows us to thrive in our environments by acquiring the necessary post-birth intelligence, base on the world that we are born into.

The fundamental unit of force is N (newton). Base on that, many iterations and layers later, comes a world where humans have more or less mastery over force and the ability to bring into existence what we inherently cannot if we solely rely on our biological limitations. What about the fundamental unit of thought? Do we really know enough about how human-level intelligence works that we can build prototype models to approximate intelligence? The human muscle contraction is a biochemical process with relatively simple inputs and outputs. Thinking is also a biochemical process but with much richer complexity. Building machines to model muscle contractions is different from building machines to model human thinking. While engines can be used to replicate forces to our liking, using computer chips to approximate complex biochemical processes in the human mind just doesn't make the mark.

The previous AI winter was a disappointment of rule-based AI through expert systems. I'm not calling out that the current data-driven AI wave would end in disappointment - that is simply downplaying current efforts and the various benefits that can be achieved with data-driven AI. I'm just saying that there has to be a 3rd wave base on something fundamentally different (and not yet in existence), if we are serious about making AGI (artificial general intelligence) a reality. So, please don't worry too much about AI or the accelerating pace of technologies. Cracks will soon appear - what usually starts the ball rolling is companies which are smaller, not-as-well capitalized, or have weaker fundamentals. Also, don't worry too much about always having to keep up with the dizzying pace of technological change, because this period of seemingly unstoppable acceleration is likely nearing its end.

THE BAD NEWS - so is there any bad news? Yes. There is going to be lesser and lesser jobs. Not due to AI, but mostly due to globalization leading to a relatively homogeneous world and decades of digitalization leading to unprecedented efficiency of production of digital goods and services. AI, however, will be made the public scapegoat and folks working on AI will be blamed for causing job losses. The rate of increase of human civilization needs (physical, emotional, cultural etc) as a whole has been outpaced by the rate of increase in the rate of production to meet those needs. That is the simple reason why we are seeing innovations around entertainment (how to happily kill excess time).

There will probably be more part-time / contract / freelance work arrangements to reflect this new reality of not having enough work to be done. In the long term, this may not be necessarily a bad thing, although the transition period from a capitalist economic system based on scarcity of resources into a world of relative abundance may be a painful and uncertain period for most. Everybody has their own unique story and nuances, so I'm not going to try to advise and tell you what to do. The only real expert who knows everything about your life and knows what's best for you is you (or perhaps your mum or spouse).

What I can say though, is be kind. At least, try. You can begin with your parents, children, family, friends, colleagues etc. If shit is really going to hit the fan anyway, compassion and some humour will at least make the big transition livable.