The Coming Tech Decentralization

In Sep 2018, I wrote an article about the coming technological stagnation. 1-2 weeks after writing the post, valuations of tech stocks began to tank. For example, Nvidia dropped 50%, Amazon dropped 30%, Netflix down 35%, Apple down over 30%. This post on NASDAQ stock index shares the basis for the timing in calling out an over-valuation in tech.

[Updated] More recently, this post from Sep 2019 calls for a sharp final rally and the likely conditions leading to game over for the stock market. It did unfold with the fore-warned conditions, and FTSE 100 dropped in 1 month to levels last seen 9 years ago. The fundamental shift for this downturn is the unfolding corona virus pandemic.

Bitcoin has been downtrending since Dec 2017, this Bitcoin technical post explains why I quickly opened an exchange account in Dec 2018 to load up on Bitcoins at 3300, and see its price appreciating 23% in a week. [Updated] The post also shares an indication to buy Bitcoin at 4188 in Apr 2019, to see it increasing 200% in value over the next few months.

In Jun 2016, I left DBS Bank's Investment and Trading Technology team, and spent the next 18 months self-funding the development of an open-source RPA software - TagUI. Robotic process automation (RPA) was not yet hot like it is today. Now, TagUI has a few thousand users automating digital work processes with the tool, and it is backed by AI Singapore.

Now, I believe a wave of tech decentralization is on its way, and it's well-positioned to be the biggest opportunity in tech for the 2020s.

Before today's tech giants became who they are, the internet was originally designed to be decentralized, and made possible with public funds. Then the web exploded - the growth in volume can no longer be supported by public institutions. Private sector took over. In pursuit of maximizing profits, tech companies are driven towards centralization. The inevitable outcome is previously unimaginable power being concentrated in the hands of a few.

A big wave is ahead of us in tech, though it may be hard to imagine now. When the opportunity arises, we will have the chance to recognize and contribute to the causes we believe in. Decentralization moves away from the concentration of profits. Thus the returns may not be measurable with the dollar. Instead, it will be a sense of fulfillment as we make a difference by directly contributing to the tech ecosystem in our local communities.

Examples of tech contributions can be hardware that we already have - part of our unused CPU cycles, mobile data or storage found on our electronic devices. Contributions can also be localised software or its components that we will easily learn to create, and at a near-professional level. Non-tech folks would also be able to contribute to localised efforts in tech. Becoming patrons of decentralization causes we support may be another option.

The conditions for tech decentralization are ripe. I shall leave you to observe what are the push factors pushing people away from centralized tech services and products, and what are the pull factors pulling people towards decentralized offerings. Those factors will intensify.

If we ride on this coming wave and do it well, over the next few years we will see a more inclusive, vibrant and colorful tech space. The quality and attention to details of the digital services and products available then, will be at a level previously inconceivable.

Everyone has their unique strengths and flair to contribute. For a start, I plan to develop a new release of TagUI in Q1 2019, containing enterprise features such as orchestration and reporting. There are so much mundane digital work processes which deserve to be done by computers, instead of wasting our human potential. I would like to help in that.

[Updated January 2020]

I created a new release of TagUI in Q2 2019, with advanced visual automation and reporting features. I also created a new project called RPA for Python, released in Q2 2019. It is a Python package built on TagUI. I reckon the best thing that I could do to contribute to decentralization efforts, would be creating an open-source RPA software for Python.

That could eliminate RPA usage and distribution friction, by making robust RPA capabilities accessible with one command - pip install rpa. Furthermore, at merely 1k+ lines of code, it is easy for developers in other programming languages to port this project over to their favourite language, bringing the power of RPA to broader developer ecosystems.