Is the Strait of Hormuz Open?
NO
Day 7 of the largest shipping disruption since WWII
Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb 28, 2026, Iranian forces closed the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil chokepoint (~20% of global supply). All commercial shipping is suspended.
Last updated: Thu, 05 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT
~0
ships detected today
vs ~138 daily average ↓ 100%
AIS Reliability Warning: Ships are switching off transponders to avoid targeting. Electronic warfare is disrupting signals. Any count is a lower bound, not exact.
~3,200 ships (4% global tonnage) idle in Gulf region
~100 container ships (10% of global fleet) affected
Sources: Windward, MarineTraffic, JMIC | Clarksons Research, ONE CEO at TPM26
Brent CrudeCached
$83.74
+$11.74 (+16.3%)
Pre-crisis: $72.00
WTI CrudeCached
$74.42
+$9.42 (+14.5%)
Pre-crisis: $65.00
EU Gas (TTF)Cached
$48.00
+$18.00 (+60.0%)
Pre-crisis: $30.00
US GasolineCached
$3.19
+$0.22 (+7.4%)
Pre-crisis: $2.97
Carrier Status
8/8 Major Lines Suspended
35+ vessels trapped in Gulf | Emergency surcharges: $1,500-4,000/TEU
MaerskSuspended
All Hormuz transits suspended. Bookings halted for UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia (Dammam/Jubail). Also paused trans-Suez via Bab el-Mandeb.
14 vessels trapped (70K TEU)
Emergency Freight Increase active
Updated: Mar 4
MSCSuspended
Declared 'End of Voyage' for all Gulf-bound cargo — most drastic step. All worldwide bookings to Middle East suspended. 15 ships (109K TEU) trapped in Gulf.
15 vessels trapped (109K TEU)
Updated: Mar 3
CMA CGMSuspended
All vessels ordered to shelter. Suez transits suspended. Fleet largely diverted — only APL Holland still shows Gulf destination.
1 vessel trapped
Emergency Conflict Surcharge: $2,000/TEU, $4,000 reefers
Updated: Mar 2
Hapag-LloydSuspended
All Hormuz transits suspended. Full booking stop for Upper Gulf countries with immediate effect.
War Risk Surcharge: $1,500/TEU, $3,500 reefers/specialty
Updated: Mar 4
COSCOSuspended
All new bookings suspended with immediate effect. Vessels inside Gulf ordered to safe waters. 2x 18,980 TEU vessels + 3 feeders west of Strait.
5 vessels trapped
Updated: Mar 4
ONESuspended
Precautionary measures active. CEO at TPM26: ~750 ships backed up, ~100 container ships (10% of global fleet). ONE Majesty trapped bound for Mundra.
Updated: Mar 2
HMMSuspended
Advisory warning of 'highly volatile security environment.' Expects delays, schedule changes, higher costs. Evaluating alternative routes.
Updated: Mar 4
EvergreenSuspended
Avoiding Hormuz transit.
Updated: Mar 3
Get the Daily Hormuz Briefing
60 seconds of crisis intelligence, every morning.
When Will YOU Feel This?
⛽GasolineAlready happening
+7% – 15%By Immediate
Oil price pass-through to pump takes 1-2 weeks. US average already up $0.22/gal in one week.
🛒Groceries & Food3-8 weeks
+3% – 8%By April 2026
Fertilizer prices surge (Gulf is major exporter). Food transport costs up via fuel. Cape of Good Hope reroute adds 10-14 days.
📱Electronics6-10 weeks
+2% – 4%By May 2026
Asia-Europe container routes disrupted. Cape reroute adds weeks. Component supply chains stressed.
🚗Auto Parts4-8 weeks
+3% – 5%By April-May 2026
Heavy Gulf shipping dependency. Petrochemical inputs for plastics and rubber affected by oil spike.
💊Pharmaceuticals6-10 weeks
+2% – 5%By May 2026
India supplies 40%+ of US generic drugs. Indian pharma depends on Gulf active pharmaceutical ingredient imports.
👕Clothing8-12 weeks
+1% – 3%By June 2026
Asia-sourced textiles face longer transit. Polyester (petroleum-derived) costs up.
🏠Home Goods6-10 weeks
+2% – 5%By May 2026
Furniture, appliances heavily shipped from Asia via Gulf transshipment hubs like Jebel Ali. Full reroute needed.
Estimates are illustrative scenarios based on Cape of Good Hope reroute adding 10-14 days + 2-3 weeks supply chain propagation. Actual impact varies by retailer, inventory levels, and sourcing.
P&I Insurance Status
Withdrawn
War Risk Premiums
0.125% → 0.2% – 1.0%
8x increase
VLCC Transit Cost
$125,000 → Up to $1,000,000
per passage
GardCancelled
SkuldCancelled
NorthStandardCancelled
London P&I ClubCancelled
American ClubCancelled
Steamship MutualCancelled
Crisis Timeline
Day 6Mar 5, 2026
P&I insurance formally removed for Hormuz transit. Strait declared high-risk zone.
Economic blockade now independent of military threat. Passage unviable even without physical danger.
Day 5Mar 4, 2026
IRGC claims 'complete control.' US strikes Iranian warship off Sri Lanka. Trump pledges Navy escorts + insurance.
3,200 ships idle (4% global tonnage). Brent $82+. US gas $3.19/gal.
Day 4Mar 3, 2026
EU gas peaks above 60 EUR/MWh (nearly 2x in days). 5+ tankers damaged, 2 crew killed.
Goldman raises Q2 Brent forecast +$10. India/Qatar issue force majeure.
Day 3Mar 2, 2026
IRGC confirms strait 'closed.' Zero AIS-broadcasting tankers at midnight.
All major carriers suspend. Houthis resume Red Sea attacks.
Day 2Mar 1, 2026
Tanker traffic collapses: 3 tankers vs 50 the day before. 240 ships cluster near strait.
P&I clubs begin withdrawing coverage.
Day 1Feb 28, 2026
US-Israel strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury). Khamenei killed. IRGC warns ships via VHF.
Brent +10-13%. Traffic -70% within hours.
Don't Miss Tomorrow's Update
60 seconds of crisis intelligence, every morning.