Gwern
“Everything Is Correlated”, Gwern 2014
“Littlewood’s Law and the Global Media”, Gwern 2018
“Ordinary Incompetence”, Gwern 2021
“The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science”, Gwern 2010
Links
“Do People Sincerely Believe Conspiracy Theories That They Endorse?”, Ross et al 2026
Do People Sincerely Believe Conspiracy Theories That They Endorse?
“My Hobby: Running Deranged Surveys; You Can Just Ask People Things”, Gao 2026
My hobby: running deranged surveys; you can just ask people things
“Cross-Tabs: April 2025 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide”
Cross-Tabs: April 2025 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide
“Children Are Unsuspecting Meat Eaters: An Opportunity to Address Climate Change”, Hahn et al 2021
Children are unsuspecting meat eaters: An opportunity to address climate change
“Approval and Mood of Country [Harvard Caps / Harris Poll]”, Poll 2021
“Did People Really Drink Bleach to Prevent COVID-19? A Tale of Problematic Respondents and a Guide for Measuring Rare Events in Survey Data”, Litman et al 2020
“Americans Losing Faith in What Trump Says about the Coronavirus: Reuters/Ipsos Poll”, Kahn 2020
Americans losing faith in what Trump says about the coronavirus: Reuters/Ipsos poll
“I’m Paid Biweekly, Just Not by Leprechauns: Evaluating Valid-But-Incorrect Response Rates to Attention Check Items”, Curran & Hauser 2019
“How To Win An Election”, Munroe 2019
“Why So Serious?: Survey Trolls and Misinformation”, Lopez & Hillygus 2018
“The Parity of Zero, the Primality of Two, and Other Mysteries”, Litt 2017
The parity of zero, the primality of two, and other mysteries
“Despite What Some May Say, Chocolate Milk Does Not Come From Brown Cows”, Considered 2017
Despite What Some May Say, Chocolate Milk Does Not Come From Brown Cows
“Clinton’s Florida Lead Continues to Grow”, Jensen 2016
“Episode 714: Can A Game Show Lose?”, Money 2016
“Are You an Independent Voter? You Aren’t If You Checked This Box: The American Independent Party Is California’s Largest Third Party. A Poll Shows 73% May Be in It by Mistake. Are You One of Them?”, Myers et al 2016
“One Fifth of Young Adults Think Fish Fingers ACTUALLY ARE the Fingers of Fish, Research Finds: One Quarter of Young Adults Are ‘Embarrassed’ at Their Lack of Knowledge on Where Food Comes From”, Mirror.co.uk 2015
“‘Mischievous Responders’ Confound Research On Teens”, Kamenetz 2014
“Inaccurate Estimation of Disparities Due to Mischievous Responders”, Robinson-Cimpian 2014
Inaccurate Estimation of Disparities Due to Mischievous Responders
“Science and Engineering Indicators 2014 § Chapter 7: Public Attitudes and Understanding”, Board 2014 (page 23)
Science and Engineering Indicators 2014 § Chapter 7: Public Attitudes and Understanding
“Belief in God among Atheists”, Center 2014
“Lizardman Constant in Surveys”, Gwern 2013
“Lizardman’s Constant Is 4%”, Alexander 2013
“A Qualitative Study of Agricultural Literacy in Urban Youth: What Do Elementary Students Understand about the Agri-Food System? § Table 2: Number and Percentage of Informants Correctly Stating Cheeseburger Origin”, Hess & Trexler 2011 (page 5)
“Generalizing From One Example [Typical Mind Fallacy]”, Alexander 2009
“Infinite Certainty”, Blanc 2008
“Fundamentally Misunderstanding Visual Perception: Adults’ Belief in Visual Emissions”, Winer et al 2002
Fundamentally Misunderstanding Visual Perception: Adults’ Belief in Visual Emissions
“Pilot Study of Agricultural Literacy: Final Report § Table 4: Percentage of Respondents Answering Agricultural Knowledge Statements Correctly and Incorrectly”, Birkenholz 1993 (page 36)
“Why Won’t Americans Get Vaccinated? One in Five Americans Believes the US Government Is Using the COVID-19 Vaccine to Microchip the Population”
“The Lizardman and the Black Hat Bobcat”
“UK: Voting Intention—19th August 2021: Data Tables”
“Voters Agree With Lee Anderson about Cracking down on Crime”
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