Seasonal Outlook
California faces elevated fire danger through the end of 2025, with conditions expected to improve in early 2026.
Northern California: Fire potential is projected to be normal (one or fewer large fires per prediction area monthly). Whiplash weather patterns are expected - alternating cool-moist and warm-dry periods - with 2-3 offshore wind events per month. Lowland areas remain vulnerable to dry, gusty wind conditions until new herbaceous growth offsets standing dead vegetation.
Southern California: Above-normal large fire potential is forecast through December due to the combination of well-above-normal temperatures, well-below-normal precipitation, and normal-to-above-normal Santa Ana wind activity. A significant rainfall event expected in late December or early January should reduce fire threat to near-normal levels starting in January.
As of early October, 2025, 37% of California is experiencing drought with an additional 34% abnormally dry. A developing La Niña pattern is expected to bring below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures through May 2026.