EURASIA GROUP'S TOP RISKS FOR 2026Top Risks is Eurasia Group's annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. This year's report was published on 5 January 2026.
Overview2026 is a tipping point year.
It's a time of great geopolitical uncertainty. Not because there's imminent conflict between the two biggest powers, the United States and China—that isn't even a top risk, it's a red herring this year. There's not (yet, at least) a second Cold War, with a rising China remaking the global system to its own liking, the Americans and allies resisting. Nor do tensions between the United States and Russia threaten to spiral out of control despite a war raging in Europe, the result of Vladimir Putin's longstanding grievances against the US-led order.
The United States is itself unwinding its own global order. The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution.
Risk 1: US political revolution
Trump is attempting to dismantle checks on his power, capture the machinery of government, and weaponize it against his enemies, making the United States the principal source of global risk in 2026.
Risk 4: Europe under siege
Europe's political center is collapsing in all three major powers at once, leaving the continent unable to fill the security vacuum left by America's retreat.
Risk 7: China's deflation trap
Beijing won’t break out of its deflationary trap this year; instead, it will keep trying to export its way out, flooding global markets with cheap goods at everyone else’s expense.
Risk 8: AI eats its users
Under pressure to generate revenue and justify sky-high valuations, some AI companies will adopt extractive business models that threaten social and political stability.
Red Herrings
'Tariff Man’ at large. Deglobalization. Spheres of influence. Sell America. Eurasia Group’s 2026 Red Herrings.