Day Fifteen of Iran’s Nationwide Protests: Sharp Rise in Human Casualties - Hrana

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HRANA – According to the latest data from HRANA, the deaths of 544 people during the protests have been confirmed, and dozens of additional cases remain under review. More than 10,681 individuals have also been transferred to prisons following arrest. Protests have taken place at 585 locations across the country, in 186 cities, spanning all 31 provinces.

On the fifteenth day of Iran’s nationwide protests, HRANA received a new wave of data and visual documentation over the past 24 hours. This comes amid an internet shutdown that has been in place since day thirteen, severely disrupting the collection and independent verification of information.

Internet Shutdown and Its Impact on Access to Information

The internet shutdown has now entered its third day, heightening concerns over “severe repression.” NetBlocks has reported that Iran’s connectivity to the outside world remains at around only one percent of normal levels, a situation that has effectively minimized public access to information and the ability of individuals to communicate with one another.

Within this context, the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission has called on the Iranian government to immediately restore internet and mobile connectivity and to put an end to “violent repression.” The mission has also expressed concern over information indicating that the Supreme National Security Council has instructed security forces to carry out repression in a “decisive and unrestrained” manner.

HRANA’s Statistical Summary up to January 11

Based on HRANA’s latest aggregated and verified data to date, protests have taken place at 585 locations nationwide, including 186 cities across all 31 provinces. As of this date:

47 members of military/law enforcement forces have been killed.
One government-affiliated non-civilian (a prosecutor) has been killed.
483 protesters have been killed.
Eight children (under 18) are recorded among the dead (not included in the above figures).
Five people have been killed as non-protesting civilian citizens.

Accordingly, the total number of confirmed fatalities has reached 544 so far. In addition, HRANA has received 579 other reports of deaths that remain under investigation.

In the area of arrests, with access to new data from several prisons (as transfer locations for detainees from the recent protests), the number of confirmed detainees has so far been recorded at 10,681. Additionally, 96 cases of forced confessions by detainees have been broadcast in state media or outlets close to the government to date.

The most significant development of the past 24 hours has been the widespread circulation of videos and information related to the holding of bodies at the Kahrizak Legal Medicine Organization and/or facilities affiliated with Tehran’s Legal Medicine Organization. These videos have both heightened public concern over the death toll and significantly strengthened the capacity of human rights organizations to verify death cases.

The circulated videos show a “large number of bodies” at the Kahrizak Legal Medicine facility. In these videos, families can be seen identifying bodies, and based on information visible in some of the footage, the number of bodies may be estimated at up to around 250.

In the published videos, many citizens are seen identifying their loved ones among the bodies.

In a significant step, state broadcaster IRIB also released a video report from a “large warehouse” in which numerous bodies are visible; however, the official narrative attributed the killings to “protesters.” This report was released after earlier footage (received by HRANA on the evening of January 10) had shown the concentration of dozens of lifeless bodies in a large hall and the presence of families searching for and identifying them, an indication of the scale of casualties during the crackdown.

This overlap of evidence (unofficial videos, media reports, and ultimately limited reflection in state media), alongside other non-public documentation received by HRANA, is precisely what has led today to a “statistical surge” and has accelerated the process of case review for monitoring and human rights bodies.

The Government’s Official Narrative and the Intensification of Security Rhetoric

At the level of official positions, on the evening of Sunday, January 11, the Iranian government declared “three days of public mourning” and, without referencing the role of security forces, attributed the deaths of protesters and security personnel to “urban terrorist criminals,” even likening the violence to ISIS.

Additionally, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a televised interview, described protesters as “terrorists,” called for “decisive” action by security forces, and claimed that protesters were “taking orders” from the United States and Israel. This framing has emerged at the same time as numerous reports and images circulating on social media showing violence and direct gunfire against protesters.

In this context, reports have also been published indicating that the government is attempting to present an alternative narrative about how the victims were killed, including claims that a “significant portion” of those killed died from sharp weapons, or that shots were fired from a “very close distance” but not by security forces, claims which, when viewed alongside published images showing bullet wounds on some bodies, require closer scrutiny and independent verification.

Field Indicators: Limited but Concerning Reports

Despite the internet shutdown, some field reports from Tehran continue to be transmitted through alternative channels. Alongside emphasis on the continuation of protests in certain areas, these reports confirm that text messaging and other communication methods, even landline telephones, are completely cut off in many areas from 8:00 p.m. onward.

Today, videos were also received of protests in Tehran and Bandar Abbas, in which the sound of gunfire can clearly be heard.

International Reactions Over the Past 24 Hours

At the international level, a series of positions and consultations have been reported in response to the situation in Iran:

The UN fact-finding mission (operating under the mechanisms of the Human Rights Council) has called for the immediate restoration of internet access and an end to violent repression, and has expressed concern over orders for repression “without restraint” issued by the Supreme National Security Council.

Amnesty International, issuing an “urgent action,” has called for the submission of visual evidence and detailed information about victims, stating that the aim is to compile legal documentation to inform the international community about ongoing crimes against protesters.

The deputy spokesperson for the U.S. State Department reported that Marco Rubio held talks with his French counterpart regarding Iran, although details of the discussion have not been made public.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump is expected to meet with senior members of his administration to discuss “specific options” for responding to developments in Iran, including options such as additional sanctions, cyber measures, and consideration of providing Starlink access.

The UK Secretary of State for Transport described Iran as a “hostile and repressive state,” emphasizing the need to “contain violence” and highlighting the prospect of a “peaceful transition.”

Additionally, the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, and the European Union, in a joint statement, praised the “courage of the Iranian people” and declared their support for the protesters’ demands.

In Conclusion

The fifteenth day of protests passed amid ongoing internet shutdowns and widespread communication disruptions that have systematically limited the capacity for information dissemination and documentation. Nevertheless, the release of videos related to the Kahrizak Legal Medicine Organization and their subsequent reflection in a state television report marked a turning point and, in practice, accelerated the verification process and the completion of death case files. At the same time, the government’s declaration of public mourning and its attribution of violence to “terrorists,” alongside the president’s explicit labeling of protesters as “terrorists,” have revealed clear signs of an intensified security approach and efforts to manage the narrative. Internationally, pressure to restore internet access and halt repression, particularly from UN mechanisms and human rights organizations, as well as consultations and official positions by governments, have continued.