How Effective Altruism Bought the Media

· Effort ·

5 min read Original article ↗

AI Doomers are Funding Circular Potemkin Articles

Updated 4 minute read

The fight for control of the AI narrative has reached egregious new heights. An Effort investigation uncovered Potemkin articles, in which claims are fabricated, corroborated, and published as journalism by members of an insular donor ecosystem. To understand how this works, follow us through this Guardian article. Of its 6 participants — including the journalist and publisher — 6/6 are paid for by three megadonors.

Guardian article body highlighting Malcolm Murray, Henry Papadatos, Kokotajlo's AI 2027, and Andrea Castagna

  • The publisher

    The Guardian

    $3,000,000+

  • The reporter

    Aisha Down

    $60K–$110K

  • Quoted 'Expert'

    Malcolm Murray

    $129,376 + $47.1M to affiliated institutions

  • Quoted 'Expert'

    Henry Papadatos

    $620,000

  • The subject

    Daniel Kokotajlo

    $2,851,166

  • Quoted 'Expert'

    Andrea Castagna

    $30,000 + 2 undisclosed grants

Coefficient Giving pays the salary of the journalist through the Tarbell Fellowship. It pays the publisher, the Guardian, more than $3M. AI 2027, the subject of the article, was given $400K from Coefficient, in addition to $2M from SFF. The three other pseudo-experts quoted in the article are all paid by SFF, Coefficient, or Effective Ventures Foundation.1

The Guardian does not disclose that it is funded by Coefficient or that the journalist is entirely paid for by Tarbell. In a fundraising statement attached to the article, the Guardian proclaims its “fierce independence.”

Guardian fundraising statement describing its fierce independence and reader support

Down declares her fellow Coefficient funding recipients “experts” without justification. She proclaims Kokotajlo “a leading artificial intelligence expert” without any specific record or achievement. Kokotajlo and the other authors of AI 2027 and AI 2040 already admitted their predictions were off by years, if not decades.

All six belong to a circular ecosystem known as “AI Safety,” united around the belief that AI will end the human race.2 What Down promotes as ‘expertise’ is not merely unrigorous or exaggerated — it is a work of cultlike fiction which openly promotes their vision of the AI apocalypse. This belief underwrites millions spent annually on promoting a firehose of anti-AI narratives with the goal of banning AI outright — the price of preventing the apocalypse.

Illustrated map of the AI existential safety ecosystem, including funders, training programs, media projects, and research groups

This ecosystem is bankrolled by three megadonors — Dustin Moskovitz’s Open Philanthropy, Sam Bankman-Fried’s Center for Effective Altruism (CEA), and Jaan Tallinn’s Survival and Flourishing Fund. The media arm of this empire has over $40 million in donations and includes paid journalists, influencers, and religious groups.

The Center for Effective Altruism ran into a major roadblock after its primary donor, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested and convicted in 2023 for fraud. It later rebranded to Effective Ventures Foundation.

After Bankman-Fried’s arrest, Open Philanthropy began to distance themselves from the Effective Altruism movement. It later rebranded to Coefficient Giving. “Our mission remains the same,” their official statement assures.

Coefficient pays the salaries of two dozen journalists at major news outlets through the Tarbell Fellowship program.

TIME6

MIT Technology Review2

Lawfare2

The Verge2

Bloomberg1

Euractiv1

Los Angeles Times1

NBC News1

Platformer1

Science Magazine1

South China Morning Post1

The Bureau of Investigative Journalism1

The Dispatch1

The Guardian1

The Information1

The New Yorker1

The largest Coefficient-funded outlet, TIME, recently drew criticism for prioritizing anti-AI activists over Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA, the most valuable public company in the world. What few of those critics know is that the outright majority of TIME 100 profiles — 58/100 — are written by Tarbell-paid journalists.

Tarbell Non-Tarbell AI Safety Connected

AI Doom content on major YouTube channels is also overwhelmingly sponsored.4 Leaked emails also show “AI Safety” organizations covertly sponsor anti-AI content on a variety of anti-AI issue areas, possibly in violation of the FCC’s advertising disclosure regulations.

Documented funder links to resolved YouTube channelsA two-column network with seven funder groups on the left and fourteen resolved YouTube channels on the right with documented funding totals.FundersYouTube channelsDocumented funder links to resolved YouTube channelsA two-column network with seven funder groups on the left and fourteen resolved YouTube channels on the right with documented funding totals.FundersChannels

Sponsorships aren’t without tradeoffs for paid influencers. The largest sponsored videos dramatically underperform unsponsored content.

Kurzgesagt$5.83M

Usual Views: 12.87MDropoff: 1.62M

-12.6%

Primer$300K

Usual Views: 4.36MDropoff: 3.89M

-89.2%

The Flares$56K

Usual Views: 22.3KDropoff: 6.1K

-27.5%

Space Science Guy$23.7K

Usual Views: 2.4KDropoff: 710

-29%

Mikey PosadaUndisclosed

Usual Views: 105.7KDropoff: 81.1K

-76.7%

The AI discussion continues to be flooded with speculation, conspiracy theories, and falsehoods. While part of that can be attributed to the modern condition, the degree of coordinated, circular influence has reached new levels with AI.

1 Henry Papadatos is executive director of SaferAI, which received $509,000 in standard Survival and Flourishing Fund support and a further $111,000 conditional match. Malcolm Murray received $129,376 in risk-management contractor compensation from Effective Ventures Foundation USA. Center for Effective Altruism rebranded to Effective Ventures Foundation after its primary funder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested for fraud. The EA Funds institutional description identifies EA Funds as an Effective Ventures project; the Centre for Effective Altruism is another organization in the Effective Ventures network. Andrea Castagna’s employer, the Centre for Future Generations, received a $30,000 ACX Grants award through Manifund. The Guardian article used public statements from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman; the journalist did not directly interview Altman for the article. ↩

2 Sources: AI Panic and the Statement on AI Risk. ↩

3

Full transaction table for the media-funding category totals.

4 Creator-channel funding and engagement comparison. ↩

Kurzgesagt$5.83M12.87M11.25M(-12.6%)
Primer$300K4.36M472K(-89.2%)
The Flares$56K22.3K16.2K(-27.5%)
Space Science Guy$23.7K2.4K1.7K(-29%)
Mikey PosadaUndisclosed105.7K24.6K(-76.7%)