Tesla's Cybertruck is outselling almost every other EV in the US

Does Elon Musk have a hit on his hands with the Cybertruck?

I wouldn't go that far. But recent sales data from the auto-industry tracker Cox Automotive is worth examining ahead of Tesla's results on Wednesday.

Tesla sold almost 17,000 Cybertrucks in the third quarter, Cox estimated, making it the third-most-popular EV in the US during the period. The only other EVs that sold better were the Tesla Model 3 and Y.

So far in 2024, more than 28,000 Cybertrucks have been sold. That's more than Ford's F-150 Lightning, Rivian's R1T, and Chevy's Silverado EV, Cox data shows.

Given the reports of the Cybertruck's troubles, its divisive design, and negative reviews, these sales numbers are surprising.

Some have even compared the Cybertruck's angular body to the DeLorean and predicted similar doom. But Tesla's pickup truck has already blown that sports car out of the water in terms of sales. DeLorean only produced about 9,000 vehicles before going bankrupt in the 1980s.

There have been other positive EV signs lately. General Motors reported surprisingly solid results earlier this week and highlighted strong EV sales.

Some of this recent EV strength has been driven by lease incentives, which are available in the US to more buyers. EV leasing has soared in recent quarters and accounts for a significant portion of industry sales.

But you can't lease a Cybertruck, which costs roughly $100,000, so these sales are not really driven by incentives.

It's been about a year since this wild-looking vehicle went on sale. In December, I examined Wall Street expectations. At that time, Tesla was expected to sell about 48,500 Cybertrucks in 2024, based on the average of forecasts from analysts at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Bernstein, and Wedbush.

Tesla would have to sell another 20,000 or so Cybertrucks in the fourth quarter to hit that target.

It might actually do it.