The Paul Graham growth test
Paul Graham says a startup comes down to two numbers: your growth rate and how long it lasts. Answer a few questions and we measure both, honestly, against his 15%-a-month bar.
The framework
Two numbers, per Paul Graham
In his talk How to Earn a Billion Dollars, Paul Graham argues a startup's outcome comes down to just two numbers: its growth rate, and how long that growth lasts. At 15% a month, revenue multiplies about 4,384x over five years, enough to make a typical founder a billionaire. Neither number requires cheating.
You get it by making something users love so much they tell their friends. We measure your compound monthly rate and grade it against the 15% bar.
You get it by being in a big market. Market size sets how long growth can compound. Cheating cannot manufacture either number.
What you get
A real growth verdict
- Your compound monthly growth rate, across the full window and the trailing 3 and 6 months
- A 0-100 growth-health score and letter grade, anchored to PG's 15%/month bar
- Projections of where each growth rate lands you in 1, 2, and 3 years
- Your time to a $1B revenue run-rate vs the 15%/month path
- Your phases read off the actual revenue series: ignition, scaling, plateau
- Copy-paste prompts for the specific growth moves that re-accelerate the curve