The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon.
Why it matters: A U.S. military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela, sources say.
- The sources noted it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that's much broader in scope — and more existential for the regime — than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
- Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency.
- With the attention of Congress and the public otherwise occupied, there is little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade.
Breaking it down: Trump came close to striking Iran in early January over the killing of thousands of protesters by the regime.
- But when the window of opportunity passed, the administration shifted to a two-track approach: nuclear talks paired with a massive military build-up.
- By delaying and bringing so much force to bear, Trump has raised expectations for what an operation will look like if a deal can't be reached.
- And right now, a deal does not look likely.
Driving the news: Trump's advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for three hours in Geneva on Tuesday.
- While both sides said the talks "made progress," the gaps are wide and U.S. officials aren't optimistic about closing them.
- Vice President Vance told Fox News the talks "went well" in some ways, but "in other ways it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through."
- Vance made it clear that while Trump wants a deal, he could determine that diplomacy has "reached its natural end."
State of play: Trump's armada has grown to include two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets and multiple air defense systems. Some of that firepower is still on its way.
- More than 150 U.S. military cargo flights have moved weapons systems and ammunition to the Middle East.
- Just in the past 24 hours, another 50 fighter jets — F-35s, F-22s and F-16s — headed to the region.
Between the lines: The standoff with Iran has gone on so long that many Americans are likely numb to it. War could come sooner, and be much bigger, than most recognize, sources say.
- Trump's military and rhetorical build-ups make it hard for him to back down without major concessions from Iran on its nuclear program.
- It's not in Trump's nature, and his advisers don't view the deployment of all that hardware as a bluff.
- With Trump, anything can happen. But all signs point to him pulling the trigger if talks fail.
The timeline: The Israeli government — which is pushing for a maximalist scenario targeting regime change as well as Iran's nuclear and missile programs — is preparing for a scenario of war within days, according to two Israeli officials.
- Some U.S. sources tell Axios that the U.S. might need more time. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said strikes could still be weeks away. But others say the timeline could be shorter.
- "The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks," one Trump adviser said.
The intrigue: U.S. officials said after Tuesday's talks that Iran needs to come back with a detailed proposal in two weeks.
- Last June 19, the White House set a two-week window for Trump to decide between further talks or strikes. Three days later, he launched Operation Midnight Hammer.
The bottom line: There's no evidence a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran is on the horizon. But there's more and more evidence that a war is imminent.
Go deeper: 6 reasons the U.S. and Iran are on the brink of war