There have been a slew of stories suggesting that advance airline bookings between the U.S. and Canada have collapsed, either because of tariffs or because Canadians are boycotting the U.S. Maybe they don’t want to become the 51st state, or just don’t like President Trump.
The claim, originating with travel data provider OAG, is that passenger bookings have plummeted 70% (“Passenger bookings on Canada – US routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year”). That never made any sense, and I’ve noted in the comments on some blogs it appears to be based on a very limited sample of data that isn’t making apples-to-apples comparisons.
That’s a COVID-19 pandemic level collapse. I flew up to Canada a couple of weeks ago, my flight was pretty full, but I guess it’s every other flight that’s empty?
Meanwhile data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows that bookings are down – a bit – but nothing like the outlier numbers that OAG reports and are dominating headlines… while noting that we don’t have a full window into bookings through direct channels.
Airlines are pulling back on their transborder schedules a bit – around 3.5% for summer – and pricing has turned more attractive. Journalist Brian Sumers notes that Air Canada says the OAG report is simply untrue.
The Canadian dollar is weak. That’s holding back Canadian travelers. But about one million Canadians out of a population of 40 million have homes in the United States. They aren’t just staying away (though they mostly travel to the U.S. during the insufferable winters).
U.S. – Canada travel is down, and it’s likely economic activity is slowing more broadly. Headlines about a 70% decline though are just wrong. That would mean market abandonment at the sort of level we saw in late March 2020 and July 2020 without travel restrictions or a global pandemic.