Scientists are observing clearer signals that the El Niño weather pattern could emerge later this year. After several years dominated by La Niña and neutral conditions, ocean and atmosphere indicators are starting to shift, raising the probability that we might see El Niño develop before the end of 2026.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño - sometimes called "the Christ Child" because it often appears around Christmas - is part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It is a natural climate rhythm driven by changes in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric winds.
During El Niño phases, tropical trade winds and ocean currents weaken. Less cold water reaches the ocean surface, and sea surface temperatures along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm significantly compared with long-term averages. Its counterpart La Niña does the opposite, cooling the same region. This warming and cooling cycle reshapes global weather patterns, affecting rainfall, drought, heat, and storm behaviour across continents.
What Are the Current Forecasts?
Climate models from agencies including NOAA put the chance of El Niño forming at roughly 50 to 60 percent. We are currently in the final phase of La Niña, after which a neutral transition period will follow. If El Niño does develop, it would likely arrive after summer 2026 and last until spring 2027.
Normally El Niño occurs every two to seven years. The last one hit in 2023 and was exceptionally strong - only 1998 and 2016 saw higher ocean temperatures. So a return in 2026 would be on the faster side of that cycle.
Why It Matters for Global Temperatures
If El Niño materializes and becomes moderate to strong, it typically pushes average global temperatures upward. The year following an El Niño often breaks temperature records because accumulated ocean warmth gets released into the atmosphere.
That is exactly what happened recently. The 2023 El Niño was followed by 2024 going into the record books as the warmest year since measurements began. Scientists warn that a new El Niño event could contribute to another round of record-breaking heat in 2027 or beyond.
How Climate Change Amplifies El Niño
Scientists have not been able to establish that climate change directly causes El Niño to form. However, it clearly amplifies its effects. Warmer ocean baselines and altered atmospheric dynamics mean that the extreme weather associated with El Niño - from heatwaves to wildfire seasons - becomes even more extreme.
As Carine Homan of the KNMI puts it, extreme weather gets pushed further into unprecedented territory when El Niño unfolds against the backdrop of ongoing human-driven warming. Even without a strong El Niño, global temperatures continue to rise due to greenhouse gas emissions. El Niño just adds fuel to the fire.
Regional Impacts Around the World
The effects of an El Niño event are far from uniform:
- South America: typically wetter, with increased flooding risks along the Pacific coast
- Indonesia and Australia: drier conditions, higher fire risk, and drought. Australia often experiences some of the most severe impacts during El Niño phases
- Tropics and subtropics: reshaped rainfall belts, with drought in some areas and heavy rain in others
- North America: shifts in storm tracks, with wetter conditions in the southern United States and drier conditions in the north
- Europe: the impact is much more limited compared to tropical regions, though subtle shifts in storm tracks and seasonal patterns can still occur
What This Means for Your Daily Weather
For most people outside the tropics, El Niño will not flip your daily weather upside down. But it can shift patterns in subtle ways: slightly warmer winters, unusual storm tracks, or dry spells where you would not normally expect them.
This is exactly the kind of shift that makes checking your forecast before leaving home more important, not less. When weather patterns deviate from the norm, our instincts about what the sky "looks like" become even less reliable.
The Bottom Line
Scientists are not certain yet that El Niño will fully take shape this year, but the growing signals are enough to keep researchers and forecasters on alert. If it does develop, the consequences will not just be local to the Pacific - they are likely to ripple across global climate patterns, potentially setting the stage for another record-warm year.
For now, as KNMI scientist Carine Homan says: "It is not yet a done deal." But the world is watching.