“That which can be destroyed by truth, will be” - P.C. Hodgell
In my first year of college, I quickly realized I had a problem. This was my first exposure to a wide variety of ideas and I ran headfirst into conspiracy theorists, self-styled Marxists, nihilists, etc. Each had radically different takes on life. I would often find myself nodding along and being swayed by whomever I was speaking with even if they contradicted the last person I had also agreed with. Clearly, something was wrong with my judgement if my beliefs were so fickle they could not survive the next conversation.
Today, the voices have only multiplied and the variety of views has grown exponentially. There is someone, somewhere holding any position imaginable (and some unimaginable) and enthusiastically shilling those views in podcasts, posts and videos. So the question remains; how do you tell what is true? This is especially challenging in areas where you do not have direct knowledge. I lack the expertise to evaluate vaccines or most social policies and yet I still have to make decisions about my health, finances and how to vote. So how do you overcome this deficit and develop good judgement? There are six habits that I have found to be effective in discerning the truth.
Examine your default beliefs. All societies have default beliefs that people just go along with. One eye-opening aspect of living in different countries is to see how different those default beliefs can be. Whether certain food is delicious or disgusting, what gender expectations are liberating or comforting, what life outcomes are successful or disastrous can be dramatically different a two-hour plane ride away. It is worth examining these beliefs and deciding for yourself if you agree with them or not. Most of our beliefs are not really ours, but of those around us.
Stop believing that what you want to be true must be true. It is comforting to believe the world works how you want it to. Hard working people want to believe the world is meritocratic. Privileged people want to believe that power is wielded by the better angels. Poor people want to believe they would have more if not for their oppressors. These beliefs that flatter their bearers may, or may not, be true but are weak ways to evaluate the world. The world is under no obligation to conform to your point of view.
Make a habit of checking if what you believe actually makes logical sense. For example, there have been lots of reports of UFOs, leading to speculation about alien visitation. However, given the vast distances between Earth and even the nearest star, I discount any extraterrestrial explanations for these phenomena. Logic, counter-intuitively, is my weakest form of judgement. It fails where my knowledge is limited or my assumptions turn out to be wrong. In the above case, I am assuming there is no technology to traverse vast distances quickly or limits to alien motivation to surmount those challenges. Unfortunately, we all overestimate our competence so use with humility.
Consider the source of information to see if there is a pattern of reliability. A publication kept reporting on opposition in Congress to a certain political bill. They breathlessly reported all the ways it was stymied right up until it passed easily and by a wide margin. I have been much more skeptical of that outlet since I realized that their reporting often reflected what readers like me wanted to be true rather than what was actually happening. The best predictor of the future is usually what has happened in the past.
Ask what else has to be true if your beliefs are correct. Back in the early 2000s, there was a lot of debate about whether climate change was even real. As a lay person in the climatology space, I had no ability to evaluate whether the purported experts, for or against, were correct. Like most people, I just retreated into the position of my tribal camp and dug in. Then one day I asked myself a question - Who has the expertise and incentive to get this right and what do they believe? Insurance companies stand to lose a lot of money if they get climate change wrong. Misprice your premiums and you are either wiped out when claims come in higher than expected or lose business by being overly cautious. If you wanted to know if climate change was real in the 2000s, you were much better off calling your broker than listening to a politician.
Make a habit of writing down your beliefs and revisit them. You will still be wrong sometimes, despite your best efforts. The difference is whether you notice and course correct. Acknowledging your mistakes and how you strayed from the path will produce beliefs that last longer than the next conversation.