TL;DR: Risk assets did their best “nothing to see here” impression as US stocks ripped higher on falling yields, crypto bounced hard, and gold jumped—while oil only inched up despite geopolitics trying to audition for a disaster movie. 😌📈
US Stocks: “Tech fixes everything” rally 📱🛠️
- S&P 500 finished ~+1.1% (around 7,747), pushed toward record territory as big tech led and Treasury yields eased.
- Nasdaq surged ~+1.4% (around 26,584), because when yields fall, growth stocks suddenly remember they’re allowed to be expensive again. 🥂
- Key driver: Fed’s Christopher Waller sounded open to holding rates steady if inflation keeps improving → markets trimmed rate-hike fear → multiples expanded (aka “financial gravity took a coffee break”). ☕
- Notable movers: Snowflake popped (~+21%) on strong results/raised outlook; Broadcom slipped (~-3.7%) as “beats estimates” wasn’t enough without a punchier forward guide (markets: eternally unimpressed). 🎭
International Stocks: Europe quietly joined the party 🇪🇺
- Germany’s DAX closed higher, with cyclicals/financials helping; broader Europe also tilted green.
- Macro assist: final services/composite PMIs came in better than expected in Germany, and Eurozone data was broadly close to expectations—basically “not terrible,” which markets treat as a catalyst now. 🙃
Bonds: yields backed off (and stocks said “thank you”) 📉🤝
- US 10-year yield eased to ~4.75% (down a few bps on the day), helping risk appetite and long-duration tech.
- Backdrop data: jobless claims roughly in line, unit labor costs a touch softer than expected, and productivity matched expectations—enough to cool the “Fed must hike tomorrow” vibe. 🧊
Crypto: big bounce mode activated ₿🚀
- Bitcoin jumped ~+4-5% to about $81k, and Ether rose ~+4% to about $2.5k.
- Why: risk-on spillover from equities + softer yields (crypto remains the world’s most caffeinated beta trade). ☕📈
Commodities: gold flexed, oil… politely moved 🛢️✨
- Gold ripped ~+2% (around $4,480/oz) as yields fell and investors hedged geopolitics with the timeless strategy of “buy shiny rock.” 🪨
- WTI crude ended slightly higher (~$91.3-$91.8/bbl): geopolitical tension helped, but the move stayed modest—apparently the market already priced in “drama” and demanded a plot twist. 🎬
Currencies: USD softened a bit 💵⬇️
- EUR/USD rose roughly +0.4% to ~1.164, consistent with slightly lower US yields and a milder dollar tone.
Major market data/events (last day) 🗓️
- Fed speak (Waller): encouraged “pause” thinking if inflation continues improving → helped trigger the broad risk-on move.
- US weekly jobless claims: essentially met expectations, not hot enough to reignite rate-hike panic.
- PMIs (final): Germany beat expectations; Eurozone roughly as expected—enough to keep Europe risk sentiment supported.