Surplus — a software incubator

6 min read Original article ↗

A Software IncubatorFor Massive Public GoodIn the Age of Transformative AI

A software incubator for massive public good in the age of transformative AI

☞  Organized by Manifund & Mox3 months · starting late JulySan Francisco

Surplus” is the value created
through positive-sum trades;
what markets produce in abundance.

PRICEQUANTITYP*Q*SUPPLYDEMAND

—  Seed funding · Advice · Peers · Intros ·

Space to focus  —

§ WhoFounders who care about xrisk and flourishing futures.§ WhereOffice space at Mox, San Francisco.§ When12 weeks, starting late July.§ Cohort~10 founders.

Surplus is an incubator for software startups, organized by Manifund and Mox — to create massive public goodin the age of transformative AI. It’s a 3 month program, starting late July in SF. We provide seed funding, advice, peers, intros, and space to focus.

Now is an excellent time to start a for-profit, given vast torrents of funding available from Anthropic employees and OpenAI Foundation. 501c3s can pay for for-profit services, and invest in for-profit corps. There’s a $100B market waiting to be constructed; shovels waiting to be sold.

Building great software takes more than coding. Product taste, visual design, distribution, sales and marketingare all things that 2026 LLMs still fail at. We’ve developed these supplementary skills needed to ship successful products, and would love to foster them in a new generation of founders.

§ The deal$100k SAFE, at a $2m post-money cap.§ Office hoursWeekly office hours and mentorship.§ DeadlineApply early by June 24; final deadline July 10.

01

Projects We’re Excited For

We’re open to many proposals, but here are three categoriesof projects we’re well-suited to incubate. If your idea is adjacent — apply anyway.

☞ ☞ ☞

01

AI for Epistemics & Coordination

LLM-powered tools that help people think better, work together, and build common knowledge.

— Examples —

02

Public-Facing Websites

Many important concepts could be translated for a wider audience, with thoughtful design and an eye for virality.

— Examples —

  • Microsites like AI 2027, showcasing concepts through narrative & interactive design
  • Visualizations like Epoch and Our World in Data
  • Transparency for what’s happening inside labs, and across the AI supply chain
  • Courses like Bluedot, helping people upskill into relevant domains
  • Demos like Nicky Case’s, or of topics from recent alignment research papers
  • Games like Manifold or Universal Paperclips, teaching concepts through play

Marketplaces or platforms, addressing common problems in EA, AI safety, and others working towards a beautiful future

— Examples —

No. 01 — Capital

$100K
investment, as a SAFE

At a $2m post-money cap. (Maybe a grant if you’re a committed nonprofit, but we’ll try to argue you out of this.)

No. 02 — Cohort

A cohort of ~10 founders

Work alongside others who care about xrisk and flourishing futures.

No. 03 — Mentorship

Office hours & mentorship

Every week of the program.

No. 04 — Dinners

Dinners with speakers

Shared meals with founders we admire.

No. 05 — Place

Office space at Mox

A space to focus, in San Francisco.

No. 06 — Demo Day

Demo Day, Oct 16

Pitch to aligned VCs and philanthropic funders.

Jun 24

Early Applications Due

Apply early for priority review; rolling video interviews.

Priority

Jul 10

Applications Due

Final deadline; rolling video interviews continue.

Final deadline

Jul 27

Program Kickoff

  • 2 weeks of ideating & cofounder matching
  • 10 weeks of mentorship, dinners with speakers

Cohort begins

Oct 16

Demo Day

Pitch to an audience of angels, VCs and philanthropic funders.

The grand finale

04

Virtues We Cherish

We’re seeking founders who are:

Loving, wholesome, earnestHumble, called to serve, takes out the trashCaring, obsessive, dedicated to craftFast, iterative, gets things doneIdealistic, optimistic, dreamersScrappy, resourceful, practicalOpen, honest, works in publicNaughty, humorous, spiritedHonorable, trustworthyBountiful, always project-ingScope-sensitive, econ-brained

Q1

Why does Surplus encourage for-profit corps?

First, there are many standard reasons to use a for-profit corporation when trying to do good. For-profits operate with tight feedback loops. They can be more certain that they produce value (see: gains from trade, Paul Graham on wealth, “surplus”). They can tap into a much larger pool of available financing. They compensate founders and employees with high upside upon a successful exit, and thereby draw in better talent.

For-profit models are surprisingly flexible: Elicit, Apollo, Goodfire, Wave, Dwarkesh, Lighthaven and Manifest all demonstrate different approaches to making money while also serving the public interest.

Now is an excellent time to start a for-profit, given vast torrents of funding available from Anthropic employees and OpenAI Foundation. These funds are distributed out of 501c3 entities — but 501c3s can pay for for-profit services, and invest in for-profit corps. There’s a $100B market waiting to be constructed; shovels waiting to be sold.

And ideologically, we think that equity is a beautiful mechanism for value alignment and credit allocation. Manifund has previously experimented with impact certificates to bring this concept to the charity world; now, we think that plain ol’ corporate equity will work fine, maybe with a light sprinkling of retroactive funding or prize rounds or advance market commitments to finance public goods.

Q2

Why start a startup, rather than join a lab or an AI safety org?

It is absolutely the case that Anthropic or METR are great places to work. But maybe:

— You’re well suited towards starting projects: you enjoy independence, ship fast, update quickly and are willing to fail.

— You think that establishing new orgs is good for accountability and avoiding groupthink, as a counterweight to frontier labs accumulating talent and money.

— You have an idea that you can’t stop thinking about, something you think will be great for the world, something that nobody else is doing (or worse: somebody is doing, but badly).

Q3

Why should I join an incubator, when vibecoding is so easy?

Building great software takes more than coding. Product taste, visual design, distribution, sales and marketingare all things that 2026 LLMs still fail at. We’ve developed these supplementary skills needed to ship successful products, and would love to foster them in a new generation of founders.

Beyond advice & mentorship, Surplus also provides a cohort of folks working on similar problems, some of whom may be great cofounders. And finally, an incubator is a container for focus, a commitment device, a way to hold yourself accountable and get your idea out into the world.

Q4

Do you accept non-software startups?

Maybe? We have the most experience on startups with a major software component, but have also built things like Manifest and Mox. Apply if you wish!

Q5

Is Surplus open to students?

Yes! If accepted to Surplus, we do ask that students plan to take a leave of absence in the fall, or otherwise prepare so you can work on your startup without distractions.

Q6

CODE FOR MASSIVE
PUBLIC GOOD