Two Paths of Technological Change

In every era of rapid technological change, the same pattern repeats. A new invention reshapes how we work, communicate, and create value. And almost immediately, society splits into two groups.

On one side are the adapters — those who get curious, explore the unknown, and find ways to integrate the new into their lives or businesses. On the other side are the resisters — those who distrust, delay, or deny the change, hoping things will go back to how they were.

One group thrives. The other struggles.

Why Fear Comes First

Let’s start with the obvious: fear. When a new technology emerges, it’s natural to ask:

These are valid concerns. Our brains are wired to spot potential threats before potential upsides — a survival mechanism that dates back to pre-modern times.

It may be hard to imagine today, but when electricity was first introduced into homes and cities, it was met with deep skepticism — even fear.

In the late 1800s and early 1900s, many people were terrified of the invisible power flowing through wires. Newspapers ran stories warning of “electric death.” Early electric appliances — light bulbs, heaters, and switches — were viewed as fire hazards. Some homeowners refused to install wiring, fearing it would explode or cause illness. Others insisted on turning the electricity off at night.

This public fear was so widespread that electric companies hired “electrification consultants” to teach people how to safely interact with switches, cords, and sockets. Utility firms even built “model electric homes” to demonstrate how harmless and beneficial electricity could be.

A New York Times article from 1889 reported on wealthy citizens hesitant to move into electrified buildings. Some preferred to keep using gas lamps, believing they were safer. In fact, the tragic 1889 death of inventor Thomas Edison’s employee John Feeks — who was electrocuted while working on high-voltage lines in New York — fueled public fear.

But over time, with better standards, education, and daily exposure, electricity not only became accepted — it became essential. The early resisters faded from view, while cities and companies that adopted electricity gained enormous advantages in productivity, safety, and lifestyle.

The same story plays out today with artificial intelligence, biotech, automation, and even digital currency. What begins in fear, ends in familiarity — and often, dependence. Source: Nye, D. E. [1990]. Electrifying America

A Forgotten Lesson in Adoption

Take the printing press. When Gutenberg introduced movable type in the 1440s, it didn’t just revolutionize book production. It changed who had access to knowledge. The early adopters — notably publishers in cities like Venice — built empires. The resisters? Scribes and manuscript guilds whose work became irrelevant within decades.

In the 1990s, as the internet reshaped business, companies like Amazon, which began as a humble online bookstore, seized the moment. Meanwhile, many traditional retailers dismissed e-commerce as a gimmick. Today, some of those early resisters no longer exist.

And then there’s AI. Today, designers, developers, and knowledge workers who use AI as a partner are increasing productivity, exploring new creative modes, and standing out. Those who ignore or reject it entirely risk being left behind as expectations shift around them.

In every era, those who lean into change — imperfectly, but early — end up shaping it.

Why Early Adoption Matters

A comprehensive review of 80 firm-level studies across both developed and developing countries found that structured interventions — things like targeted training, technology provision, or consulting — led to statistically significant improvements in technology adoption in more than half of the cases.

• In manufacturing and services: 19 of 33 studies showed significant gains.
• In agriculture: 20 of 47 studies led to better outcomes.
• Some interventions even improved profitability.

A 2023 study found that organizations with higher levels of technology adoption were better able to absorb economic shocks and recover faster from crises. In other words, adaptation builds resilience.

Whether it’s supply chain disruptions, pandemics, or economic downturns, early adopters have more options — and more flexibility — to respond. Source: Bucheli et al., 2023, ScienceDirect

The Diffusion Curve Is Real

The adoption of innovation follows a familiar arc — first described by Everett Rogers in his landmark work, Diffusion of Innovations.

According to this model, any new technology spreads through the population in predictable phases:

The real advantage lies in being among the first 15%. These are the people and companies who help shape how a technology is used, set standards, and often capture the largest share of rewards — from talent to market share to influence. Waiting until a technology is mainstream often means playing catch-up.

In these cases, late adopters avoided sunk costs and gained massive benefit — in one scenario, increasing profits by 89%. But these leapfrog moments are the exception, not the rule. And they often depend on having a strong reason or capability to switch at the right time. Source: Goldenberg et al., 2010;

So What Do We Do With This?

The most successful adapters don’t wait for perfect conditions. They start small. They try things. They surround themselves with others who are curious, not cynical.

Here’s what that might look like in practice:

• If you’re a beginner: invest a few hours a week exploring the tools that are reshaping your industry.
• If you’re a leader: create space for your teams to experiment — without fear of failure.
• If you’re a skeptic: instead of asking “What could go wrong?”, try asking “What could go right?”

The Opportunity Is Bigger Than the Fear

Fear is fleeting. Opportunity compounds.

The choice isn’t whether change will happen. It already is. The real question is: when it does, which side of the line will you be on?

Adaptation doesn’t mean certainty. It means motion. And in a world that’s always evolving, motion is momentum.

So lean in. Learn forward. Because the opportunity — in every wave of change — is waiting for those willing to ride it.