Good morning,
Just as spring arrives and Europeans head to parks to sit in the sun, one by one shedding their many winter layers, Northern Europe is facing some rather cooling news. You’ve probably heard it before, something about the Gulf Stream stopping or cooling. Well, some of the latest scientific modelling suggests that a collapse of the fine system of currents in the Atlantic ocean could push parts of the Nordic region towards conditions that look and feel a lot like modern-day ice age – and, plot twist, that could happen much sooner than we thought. We look at what that means in today’s top story.
Liene Lūsīte
Editor
For Nordics, a modern-day ice age could be closer than expected
The collapse of the Atlantic Ocean current system could significantly cool Northern Europe.
HalldĂłr KristĂnarson
Iceland sits near the so-called “cold blob”: a patch of ocean south of Greenland that has been cooling for more than a century while the rest of the planet warms.
Scientists increasingly link this anomaly to the weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This huge and vital network of ocean currents which helps regulate Europe's climate is weakening as global temperatures rise. If the circulation were to collapse entirely, temperatures across the North Atlantic region could drop.
Now, that scenario is no longer confined to climate models. The threat has even reached Iceland's national security council.
Let’s break this down
The AMOC acts like a giant conveyor belt in the Atlantic. Warm surface water flows north from the tropics, releasing heat into the atmosphere and keeping much of Europe far milder than its latitude would suggest.
As that water cools, it becomes denser, sinks, and slowly travels back southward along the ocean floor.
The circulation is very slow – a full loop can take a thousand years. But its impact is immediate: the current redistributes heat, shapes rainfall patterns and even stores carbon in the deep ocean.
Global heating is now disrupting this system. Melting ice from Greenland and the Arctic is pouring freshwater into the North Atlantic, making water less salty and therefore less dense. That makes it harder for surface waters to sink, weakening the engine that drives the entire system.
If the AMOC slows dramatically or shuts down altogether, the consequences would extend far beyond Iceland. The tropical rain belt – the band of intense rainfall circling the equator – could shift, altering rainfall patterns that millions of people rely on for food.
Europe could face more frequent summer droughts and a higher wildfire risk. Sea levels along parts of the North Atlantic could also rise by an additional half metre on top of existing climate-driven increases.
New scientific models raise alarm
The AMOC has already been weakening since the mid-20th century. Most climate models have projected the system's behaviour until the year 2100. But newer simulations that extend much further, to 2300 and even 2500, show a much more troubling story.
In a 2025 assessment, scientists from the Netherlands and the UK suggest the tipping point that would make the AMOC shutdown inevitable could be crossed within the next decade or two. The actual collapse could follow 50 to 100 years after that.
In 2024, a group of international scientists warned Nordic governments about the risk. In an open letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers, they said that the risk of a major disruption or collapse of the AMOC is serious and underestimated.
Given the potentially irreversible consequences, the scientists urged the Nordic governments to immediately assess the threat and accelerate efforts to cut global emissions to stay in line with the 1.5°C 2015 Paris Agreement target.
The AMOC, they wrote, “determines life conditions for all people in the Arctic region.”
What can be done?
Iceland’s environment minister, Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, recently said that the latest research is shocking. Without decision-makers taking rapid action to cut fossil fuel emissions in the next decades, he warned, Iceland could become “nearly uninhabitable for our children and grandchildren”.
SteingrĂmur JĂłnsson, oceanographer at Iceland's Marine & Freshwater Research Institute, compares the AMOC collapse to a shock of a volcanic eruption.
“These are temperature changes of a few degrees and that would be tremendous for us [Icelanders]. Fish production in the ocean would lessen and the fish stock would change drastically,” he explained to Heimildin in September 2024. “This would be something that we, as a nation, would hardly survive.”
Preventing such a collapse ultimately comes down to one thing: cutting CO2 emissions, scientists emphasise. Any extra warming or prolonged overshoot of 1.5°C increases the risk of triggering an AMOC tipping point.
Researchers also stress the need for sustained investment in ocean monitoring. Expanding observation systems and developing an early-warning mechanisms for AMOC changes would allow data to feed directly into policymaking rather than remaining confined to scientific journals.
Because while the currents beneath the Atlantic may move slowly, the decisions shaping their future cannot.
Watch now: Why the EU and India need each other
This month on CTRL+EU we’re breaking down the growing trade relationship between the EU and India — from supply chains to geopolitics, and what it means for Europe’s economic future.
TEC video journalist Ana Fota is joined by EU/India journalist and commentator Rahul Venkit and EU foreign policy expert Stefania Benaglia to unpack why India and the EU have more in common than you might think.
Quiz: What spring flower is that?
A crocus it is – and in Dolina Chochołowska, it is phenomenal. The first ones coming up through the snow make national news, and they are closely watched - and photographed - by human visitors. I’m longing to come too.
Hm, you need to take more nature walks! As we wrote recently, it’s good for your health to smell flowers and feel a part of nature. And in Dolina Chochołowska, the flowers are phenomenal. The first ones coming up through the snow make national news, and they are closely watched - and photographed - by human visitors. I’m longing to come too.
Crisis preparedness for others, but not for itself
The European Union repeatedly emphasises the importance of “crisis preparedness” – preparing for wars, pandemics and climate disasters. But this strategy has a critical blind spot: EU institutions remain woefully unprepared for the looming authoritarian threat.
In April 2024, French president Emmanuel Macron warned that the EU “ can die”. While he primarily addressed geopolitical pressures, the EU’s survival could also be threatened by state capture.
If a majority of member states elect far-right parties in the coming years, the EU could become an empty shell, unable to propose new legislation or enforce existing laws.
The authoritarian playbook can be applied to the EU, too
The authoritarian shift within Europe has already weakened EU institutions. Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán continues to be the EU's “bête noire”, a persistent political headache for Brussels, dismissing EU concerns about the state of Hungarian democracy as politically motivated and portraying itself as a champion of “illiberal democracy”.
Member states like France, which will hold presidential elections next year, could follow the path of Poland and Hungary and begin refusing to implement EU law. As more authoritarian governments emerge in Europe, democratic backsliding could also spread to the EU level.
Authoritarian-led governments could then paralyse the EU by reducing the Commission’s work programme to a minimum, refusing to comply to infringement procedures, and stalling existing legislative negotiations in the Council.
The EU's long-term budget, currently under negotiation, could be significantly curtailed, stripping funding from education, research, and civil society – following the example of the US, which stopped public funding for organisations that did not follow president Donald Trump's line.
First signs that the EU could go in this direction already exist. An “NGO working group” was established by conservative and far-right groups in the European Parliament to review civil society funding from the EU – in what can be largely considered a clear political targeting of climate organisations.
Such plans to undermine the EU from within are already in action. In 2025, the Orbán-funded think tanks Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), together with Poland’s Ordo Iuris, published a strategy – supported by The Heritage Foundation, an American far right tink tank – outlining how to hollow out the EU.
After the 2029 EU elections, Commissioners nominated by national governments with far right parties could include figures determined to weaken – or even abolish – the Union.
For now, the Italian Commissioner Raffaele Fitto and his Hungarian counterpart Oliver Varhelyi are the only two Commissioners who were sent by far right governments. That number could increase in the future. Decision-makers in the Council could also revert most decisions to unanimity, already the norm in migration policy, making the EU incapable of action.
How to prevent implosion of the EU?
To prevent such a scenario, decision-makers must implement preventive measures to safeguard the EU’s independent institutions from political interference.
Germany offers a blueprint. In December 2024, the Bundestag amended its Basic Law to strengthen safeguards for the Federal Constitutional Court. Key protections now include a 12-year term limit for judges, a cap of 16 judges across two senate courts, a one-time election threshold, and an age limit of 68.
Crucially, the Court retains full autonomy over its internal rules, shielding it from political interference. This means that even if the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) entered government, altering the Court’s structure would require a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag, and that's a high threshold to reach.
The same type of reforms are needed at the European level – before it is too late. Many of them would require treaty reforms, such as switching from unanimity to qualified majority voting in the Council, amending Article 7 (which allows sanctions against member states), or revising how Commissioners are nominated and how many there are.
Treaty changes have generally been considered impossible in the current political climate. But decision-makers could still find workarounds – if the political will exists. After all, the EU managed to find a legal basis for joint borrowing with NextGenerationEU package, despite long-standing claims that this was impossible.
Preparing for a crisis from within
Smaller tweaks could also better prepare the EU for a potential authoritarian takeover.
First, a Chinese wall should be created within the European Commission to separate its role as Guardian of the Treaties from its legislative function.
One way to do this would be to create an independent, decentralised agency responsible for implementing EU legislation. Otherwise, the Commission risks undermining its own laws by failing to enforce them, especially in areas where member states are slow to act, such as in the case of the Digital Services Act.
Second, the EU could reallocate certain budget items within its current budget (called Multiannual Financial Framework, or MFF) to strengthen independent bodies combating fraud, corruption, and holding institutions accountable.
This would benefit the European Ombudsman, the European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, and the EU’s anti-fraud office, OLAF.
With the next seven-year MFF cycle on the horizon, the EU has a unique opportunity to revamp its anti-fraud architecture. These bodies should have the resources and mandate to act as effective watchdogs against democratic backsliding and financial misconduct – which is not the case for now.
Third, the European Commission should resist attempts by the European Council to reshape the EU’s institutional and procedural rules.
At an informal summit in February, t he Commission appeared willing to accept national leaders’ “preferences” on how EU the EU laws should be drafted, delegated and applied over time – all framed as “simplification”.
Some proposals also would shift reporting to the Council instead of the Parliament. Such “preferences”, however, contradict the EU Treaties, which clearly state that the European Council should not exercise legislative functions.
Political responsibility also lies with European party leaders. It's up to them to decide whether to cooperate with parliamentary groups that openly intend to abolish the EU.
The leader of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), Manfred Weber, has already broken the informal cordon sanitaire by working with the far right on several votes in the European Parliament, including efforts to reduce environmental standards and to tighten migration policies.
Sophie Pornschlegel
The EU should prepare itself not only for geopolitical crises, but for a crisis from within. And time is short: France holds its presidential elections in April 2027. If one of the Union's largest members ends up with a far right president, protecting EU democracy will become harder.
The EU should therefore act quickly to shield its institutions from state capture. Crisis preparedness should apply to the EU itself – after all, its very existence is at stake here.
Italians are charging your car batteries with the old fishing nets from the bottom of the sea.
Monica Pelliccia, Alice Pistolesi
When ghost nets can make energy
Most marine waste comes from fishing gear, but getting it out of the sea is only half the battle – the bigger question is what to do with it next. In Italy, scientists may have found the answer: turning it into energy.
Last December, Italian scientists ran a successful experiment, converting 200 kilograms of ghost nets recovered from the seabed into enough energy to recharge an electric car for 3,000 kilometres.
It was the first implementation of a new technology called Green Plasma, which turns marine plastic debris into energy. The system is installed on a mobile van that can be moved in different areas, including near ports, islands or beaches.
This technology can process up to 100 kilograms of non-recyclable marine plastic per day, converting it into syngas – a hydrogen-rich combustible gas that can generate electricity.
Since spring 2025, Marche Polytechnic University in the city of Ancona has operated Green Plasma as Italy's first mobile and experimental system for treating marine waste – and the first of its kind globally.
Every year, around 12 million tonnes of plastic end up in the oceans – the equivalent of dumping a garbage truck into the water every minute – irreparably damaging the marine ecosystems.
The data from the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) show that 86.5% of marine waste comes from fishing activities, including nets, lines, and traps.
So far, Europe has had no effective recycling options for this type of unsorted waste. The Green Plasma project aims to change that.
“When you remove marine waste, you don't know what to do [with it] because most of it is not recyclable and ends up in incinerators or landfills,” Francesco Regoli, professor at Marche Polytechnic University, who is in charge of the Green Plasma, told The European Correspondent.
The process starts by shredding the unsorted waste collected from the sea and putting it into a reactor. The system heats the material to over 950-1000°C, turning the waste into gas.
That gas then is used to power an electric generator to produce energy or charge batteries in electric vehicles. At the university, a small electric car already drives around campus with a sticker that reads: “Powered by plastic collected from the sea”.
Part of the project's mission is to raise awareness about the pollution caused by fishing gear. With its mobile van, the Green Plasma team plans to bring the technology directly to coastal areas, including beach clean-ups during the summer.
So far, the project has carried out 15 net removal operations in southern Italian waters. By May 2026, the team plans to continue operations to the central and northern parts of the country.
Before each recovery mission, the team conducts geophysical surveys to map the waste on the seabed, explained Massimiliano Falleri, head of the Marevivo diving division, to TEC. Professional divers then pick up the nets.
“This is a very delicate step, because we need to avoid further damage to the seabed,” said Falleri.
Not every recovered net goes into the Green Plasma experimentation, only the ones that would otherwise end up in unsorted waste.
”The nets must be made of a type of nylon that is already compromised and deteriorated, a material that cannot be recycled in any way,” Falleri explained. ”The real innovation is that the unsorted waste is instead converted into energy,” added Falleri.
Researchers believe that the technology could be widely replicated. “We aim to study the relation between different types of plastic to understand how much energy they can provide,” Regoli said.
“In the future, the system could be used to organise a regular service to recover and valorise plastic waste collected in the ports of our region, or the large quantities of agricultural nets used and discarded by local farms,” he concluded.
The chatbot that knew too much
Aoife White
Google’s Gemini chatbot seems to love Hungarian celebrity gossip. When asked about pop star Kozsó’s plans to build an aquarium and put dolphins in it next to Lake Balaton, it spilled some details, triggering a copyright dispute that could be the first major test of how EU copyright rules apply to AI.
Hungarian publisher Like Company cried foul, complaining that the artificial intelligence large-language model had violated its copyright by “reading” the article about the dolphins and summarising it.
It tested the chatbot by asking about the story. Gemini's response resembled its own article – even though Like Company says it never gave permission for the content to be used.
The publisher took Google to court in Budapest, where judges sought advice from the EU's highest judicial authority, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), to clarify how EU law should apply. The court interprets EU legislation, leaving the final decision to national judges.
Google and the publisher had their say at the EU tribunal at a hearing in Luxembourg on Tuesday.
The case highlights complaints from publishers about how their content may be used to train AI models, which are hungry to suck up vast amounts of data.
In the EU, the dispute builds on earlier battles between publishers and technology giants over whether and how much news content can be shown in search results. Content attracts readers, which attract advertising revenue. Publishers fear that they are losing both readers and ad money to tech firms.
In 2019, the EU copyright directive granted publishers the right to charge platforms if small snippets of their news stories appear in services such as Google News. Many publishers now refuse to allow headlines and excerpts to be shown on such platforms in the hope that people will visit their websites instead.
The same law does allow text and data mining, which can allow the analysis of large datasets, such as those used for AI models. Publishers can opt out of that.
Like Company's lawyer Gyula Rátz argued that the case was “deciding the future of quality journalism” and whether publishers receive fair compensation in the age of AI.
“Unfortunately, the news about dramatic decreases of 50% in traffic due to AI overviews is true,” he told the hearing, later streamed online. “The integration of Gemini into Google Search has caused an existential crisis for several European publishers.”
But does a chatbot actually “read”? And did Gemini gobble up an article under copyright to reproduce it later?
Google's lawyer Zoltán Szür told the court that it did not.
“Nowhere in the Gemini foundational models are there fragments of the articles,” the company's representative said. A trained AI model is “a complex mathematical function resulting from an analysis of how language works”, where one word or token can trigger the next logical response.
The chatbot could have gleaned the information elsewhere, and the elements of the story aren't covered by copyright, he argued, since the facts behind the dolphin story “were widely reported in several articles published at the time.”
EU judges should issue a ruling later this year.
In late February, Gorillaz released their ninth album, The Mountain. The English “virtual band”, created 25 years ago by Blur frontman Damon Albarn and cartoonist Jamie Hewlett, sticks to what it does best: blending genres and collaborating with an eclectic mix of artists – though this record feels more cohesive than some of their past releases. The band will promote it with a run of European concerts between March and June 2026.
Nathan Domon
The squirrel and the mammoths in the Ice Age movies makes it look fun. It certainly isn’t. Cut the emissions.
Liene Lūsīte
Editor
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This newsletter was edited by Liene Lūsīte, the visuals were created by Hanna Huld, and the executive producer was Julius E. O. Fintelmann.
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