- Huawei purchases 23–25 million and 40–42 million mobile phone SoCs from Qualcomm in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
- However, it’s expected that Huawei’s new models will fully adopt the new self-developed Kirin processors starting in 2024, so Qualcomm will not only lose Huawei’s orders completely from 2024 onwards but also face the risk of a decline in shipments to non-Huawei Chinese brand clients due to the competition from Huawei.
- Qualcomm’s SoC shipments to Chinese smartphone brands in 2024 are expected to be at least 50–60 million units lower than in 2023 due to Huawei’s adoption of the new Kirin processors and will continue to decline year by year.
- My latest survey indicates that Qualcomm will likely start a price war as early as 4Q23 to maintain market share in the Chinese market, which will be detrimental to profits.
- Two other potential risks for Qualcomm are that the market share of Exynos 2400 in Samsung mobile phones is higher than expected, and Apple is expected to use its own modem chip starting in 2025. I will discuss more details in the future.
- 華為在2022與2023年分別向Qualcomm採購2,300–2,500萬與4,000–4,200萬顆手機SoC。
- 然而，華為預計自2024年開始，新機種全面採用自家設計的新Kirin處理器，故Qualcomm自2024年開始不僅完全失去華為訂單，還要面臨非華為中國品牌客戶因華為手機市占率提升而出貨衰退的風險。
- 預期Qualcomm在2024年對中國手機品牌的SoC出貨，將因華為採用新Kirin處理器而較2023年至少減少5,000–6,000萬顆，而且預期持續逐年減少。
- 我最新調查顯示，Qualcomm為維護在中國市場的市占率，最快可能將在4Q23開始價格戰，此舉不利利潤。
- Qualcomm另外兩個潛在的風險，分別是Exynos 2400在Samsung手機的比重高於預期，以及Apple預期將自2025年開始採用自家數據機晶片。我會在未來討論更多細節。
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