AI Model Release Timeline — Prediction Market Forecasts

9 min read Original article ↗

Aug 23, 2026

Overview

Median forecast dates

Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date

New Gemini reasoning flagship

Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1

Model or changeProviderDate signal
New Gemini reasoning flagship Google Not available on this date
Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 Anthropic No median; 45% probability by Aug 31, 2026
Next Mythos-Class Model Anthropic Median Sep 15, 2026
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) Google Median Sep 19, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) OpenAI Median Sep 19, 2026
OpenAI’s Astra OpenAI Median Sep 19, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) OpenAI Median Sep 29, 2026
Next Claude Opus Anthropic Median Oct 2, 2026
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) Google Median Oct 6, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model Google Median Oct 11, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) OpenAI Median Oct 12, 2026
Next Claude Sonnet Anthropic Median Oct 20, 2026
Next Claude Haiku Anthropic Median Oct 23, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) OpenAI Median Oct 24, 2026
Gemini 4.0 Google Median Oct 27, 2026
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? Google Median Nov 1, 2026
Which week will OpenAI release Astra? OpenAI No median; 26% probability by Nov 1, 2026
GPT-6 OpenAI No median; 44% probability by Dec 31, 2027

  1. Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5

    Only 45% probability by Aug 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 change probability Aug 22, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 45% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Aug 23 PDF · change probability rate per day 5.0%/day 0% Aug 22Aug 31

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  2. Next Mythos-Class Model

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 76% by Oct 31, 2026.

    Next Mythos-Class Model release probability Aug 22, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 10% cumulative, Sep 9, 2026 26% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 50% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 64% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 76% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 4.1%/day 0% Aug 22Sep 1Oct 1Oct 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  3. Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 68% by Oct 31, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) release probability Aug 31, 2026 3.2% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 48% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 56% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 68% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 3.2%/day 0% Aug 23Sep 1Oct 1Oct 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  4. OpenAI’s Astra

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 90% by Oct 31, 2026.

    OpenAI’s Astra release probability Aug 22, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 2.0% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 40% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 78% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 90% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 2.6%/day 0% Aug 22Sep 1Oct 1Oct 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  5. Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 56% by Sep 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) release probability Aug 31, 2026 40% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 56% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 40%/day 0% Aug 23Sep 1Sep 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  6. Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 71% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) release probability Aug 31, 2026 4.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 52% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 52% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 71% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 4.0%/day 0% Aug 23Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  7. Next Claude Opus

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 96% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Opus release probability Aug 31, 2026 5.5% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 48% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 78% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 96% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 5.5%/day 0% Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  8. Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 70% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) release probability Sep 30, 2026 48% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 61% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 70% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 48%/day 0% Aug 23Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  9. Next Google Gemini Pro Model

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 70% by Oct 31, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model release probability Aug 1, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 2, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 3, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 5, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 6, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 7, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 8, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 9, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 11, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 12, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 13, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 14, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 15, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 16, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 17, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 18, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 20, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 21, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 22, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 23, 2026 0.5% cumulative, Aug 24, 2026 1.4% cumulative, Aug 25, 2026 1.9% cumulative, Aug 26, 2026 2.4% cumulative, Aug 27, 2026 4.4% cumulative, Aug 28, 2026 4.8% cumulative, Aug 29, 2026 5.7% cumulative, Aug 30, 2026 6.6% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 6.9% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 27% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 40% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 70% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 2.0%/day 0% Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Oct 31

    Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market · Exact-date market

    release forecast (combined by/on markets)

  10. Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 69% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) release probability Aug 31, 2026 20% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 44% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 60% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 69% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 20%/day 0% Aug 23Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  11. Next Claude Sonnet

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 86% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Sonnet release probability Aug 31, 2026 8.3% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 59% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 86% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 8.3%/day 0% Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  12. Next Claude Haiku

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 57% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Haiku release probability Aug 31, 2026 5.0% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 57% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 57% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 5.0%/day 0% Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  13. Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 74% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release probability Aug 31, 2026 26% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 45% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 52% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 74% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 26%/day 0% Aug 23Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  14. Gemini 4.0

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 81% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Gemini 4.0 release probability Aug 22, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 0.8% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 14% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 16% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 56% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 81% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 1.3%/day 0% Aug 22Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  15. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

    median date for change

    The cumulative probability reaches 52% by Nov 1, 2026.

    When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? change probability Nov 1, 2026 52% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Aug 23 PDF · change probability rate per day 52%/day 0% Aug 23Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  16. Which week will OpenAI release Astra?

    Only 26% probability by Nov 1, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    Which week will OpenAI release Astra? change probability Nov 1, 2026 26% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Aug 23 PDF · change probability rate per day 26%/day 0% Aug 23Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  17. GPT-6

    Only 44% probability by Dec 31, 2027

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    GPT-6 release probability Aug 22, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 1.2% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 20% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 36% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 44% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 44% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 44% cumulative, Dec 31, 2027 44% cumulative. Forecast as of Aug 23, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Aug 23 PDF · probability rate per day 1.2%/day 0% Sep 1Nov 1Jan 1Mar 1Jun 1Aug 1Oct 1Dec 1

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast