Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?
563
resolved Oct 28
Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@v = ML
❌ hand-coded to trade against you
❌ using admin permissions to cheat
❌ rigging platform to steal from you
Make the platform less sh*tty instead of incenting user slippage and then front-running your own database
Before insider-bot:
After:
Regime censors him for daring to criticize their foreign policy follies—and saves him ten billion
Or deal goes through and can no longer control public thought as easily.
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As with the hysterical “don’t let him buy it” “force him to buy it” reversal. Two ways to win for Elon, no ways to lose.
We're 10 days out from the deadline for the deal to close or else the trial will resume. Made a shorter-term market here:
we really ought to show +subsidy in the comments, perhaps with a shiny background if it's a big subsidy
melon husk
people were pretty confident it would happen earlier this year too so I think 88% is too high. I'd give it ~70% odds
The chance that musk weasles out again is being underpriced.
Thanks. These ai things are neat.
