Pay Raise Math for Comparing Job Offers

6 min read Original article ↗
Career

Compare two job offers using a total-comp, commute-time, and risk-adjusted framework—then convert the result into an effective hourly rate you can use for clearer trade-offs.

Table comparing two job offers using pay, benefits, commute, and hours
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Two offers can look obvious on paper—until commute time, unpaid overtime, and “maybe” bonus/equity enter the picture.

Framework: compute each offer’s risk-adjusted total compensation, convert it into a risk-adjusted effective hourly rate (including commute + unpaid overtime), and then do a short sensitivity check to see what assumptions actually drive the result.

The inputs you need

  • Cash comp: base salary + bonus target (and how reliably it pays).
  • Equity: annualized value + a realism factor (vesting + probability it’s worth the headline value).
  • Benefits (as adjustments): estimated employer retirement match value; estimated annual employee health premium cost.
  • Time costs: unpaid overtime hours; commute time; remote days per week.

Use this as a one-page input sheet (fill with numbers where possible; use estimates where you must, and then stress-test them).

Input Offer A Offer B Notes / how to estimate
Base salary (annual) $ $ Use the written offer letter figure.
Bonus target (% of base) % % Use target %; do not treat as guaranteed cash.
Bonus reliability factor (0–1) 1.0 = essentially certain; 0.7–0.9 = usually near target; lower if discretionary/volatile.
Equity value (annualized) $ $ Convert grant to per-year value using vesting schedule (e.g., 4-year vest → divide by 4).
Equity realism factor (0–1) Probability-weighted: stay-through-vesting × confidence in realized value.
Employer retirement match value (annual estimate) $ $ Estimate from match policy (or treat as $0 if unclear).
Your health premium cost (annual estimate) $ $ From benefits sheet: paycheck deduction × pay periods.
Remote days per week Use the policy stated for your team; note policy-change risk separately.
Commute time (hours per in-office day) Door-to-door average (not “best day”). Include parking/walking.
Unpaid overtime (hours per week) Ask about on-call, deadlines, and typical week during peak periods.

The calculator

This version intentionally avoids taxes because they’re personal and location-specific. It focuses on two items that can be compared more cleanly across offers: expected value and time.

Assumptions
- WorkWeeks = 48          (room for holidays/vacation; set to your reality)
- PaidHoursPerWeek = 40
- WorkDaysPerWeek = 5

OnsiteDaysPerWeek = WorkDaysPerWeek - RemoteDaysPerWeek
AnnualCommuteHours = CommuteHoursPerOnsiteDay * OnsiteDaysPerWeek * WorkWeeks
AnnualOvertimeHours = UnpaidOvertimeHoursPerWeek * WorkWeeks
AnnualTotalHours = (PaidHoursPerWeek * WorkWeeks) + AnnualOvertimeHours + AnnualCommuteHours

ExpectedBonus = BaseSalary * BonusTarget% * BonusReliabilityFactor
RiskAdjustedEquity = EquityAnnualValue * EquityRealismFactor

RiskAdjustedTotalComp = BaseSalary + ExpectedBonus + RiskAdjustedEquity
                      + RetirementMatchValueEstimate
                      - HealthPremiumAnnualEstimate

EffectiveHourly = RiskAdjustedTotalComp / AnnualTotalHours

Worked example

Scenario: Offer A is remote-heavy with lower headline pay; Offer B has higher headline pay but more in-office days, longer commute, and more unpaid overtime. (USD shown for simplicity.)

Input Offer A Offer B
Base salary $120,000 $130,000
Bonus target 10% 15%
Bonus reliability factor 0.8 0.6
Equity (annualized) $10,000 $40,000
Equity realism factor 0.9 0.5
Employer retirement match value (estimate) $4,000 $2,000
Your health premium cost (estimate) $3,000 $6,000
Remote days/week 4 2
Commute hours per in-office day 0.5 1.5
Unpaid overtime hours/week 2 6

Assumption: WorkWeeks = 48.

Step 1: Expected variable comp

  • A expected bonus = 120,000 × 10% × 0.8 = $9,600
  • B expected bonus = 130,000 × 15% × 0.6 = $11,700
  • A risk-adjusted equity = 10,000 × 0.9 = $9,000
  • B risk-adjusted equity = 40,000 × 0.5 = $20,000

Step 2: Risk-adjusted total comp (including benefit adjustments)

  • A = 120,000 + 9,600 + 9,000 + 4,000 − 3,000 = $139,600
  • B = 130,000 + 11,700 + 20,000 + 2,000 − 6,000 = $157,700

Step 3: Annual hours (paid + unpaid overtime + commute)

  • Paid baseline hours (both) = 40 × 48 = 1,920
  • A onsite days/week = 5 − 4 = 1 → annual commute hours = 0.5 × 1 × 48 = 24
  • B onsite days/week = 5 − 2 = 3 → annual commute hours = 1.5 × 3 × 48 = 216
  • A annual overtime hours = 2 × 48 = 96
  • B annual overtime hours = 6 × 48 = 288
  • A annual total hours = 1,920 + 96 + 24 = 2,040
  • B annual total hours = 1,920 + 288 + 216 = 2,424

Step 4: Risk-adjusted effective hourly rate

  • A effective hourly = 139,600 / 2,040 = $68.43/hour
  • B effective hourly = 157,700 / 2,424 = $65.06/hour

Reading the result: in this set of assumptions, Offer B produces more risk-adjusted annual dollars, but Offer A produces more risk-adjusted dollars per hour once commute and unpaid overtime are included.

Sensitivity check: what changes the outcome?

Instead of debating every line item, test the few assumptions that usually dominate the comparison.

Assumption to stress-test How to test quickly Why it matters
Unpaid overtime Run 3 cases: “typical”, “busy month”, “bad quarter”. Example: B = 6, 10, 14 hrs/week. Hours compound over the year and directly reduce effective hourly.
Equity realism factor Run at least two values: conservative vs optimistic (e.g., 0.5 and 0.8). Equity outcomes are uncertain; the factor makes that uncertainty explicit.
In-office days policy drift Model +1 in-office day/week as a downside case; recompute commute hours. A small policy change can add large time costs.
Benefits estimate error Re-run with health premiums ±$1,000 and retirement match ±$2,000. Benefits can be real money, but estimates are often fuzzy early on.

Decision rules that keep it practical

  • Separate “annual dollars” from “dollars per hour”: it’s common for the higher-pay offer to have a lower effective hourly once time costs are counted.
  • Use a tie band: if effective hourly is very close (example heuristic: within ~5%), treat the comparison as a near-tie and lean more on non-math factors like role scope, manager quality, and stability.
  • Only negotiate levers you can define: base salary, guaranteed sign-on, and written remote expectations are usually cleaner to model than highly discretionary upside.

Risks and trade-offs to price in

  • Equity concentration risk: equity value is tied to one company and vesting rules.
  • Variable pay ambiguity: “target” is not “paid,” and plan rules can change.
  • Benefits mismatch: premiums are only one piece; deductibles and out-of-pocket max can change the real cost.
  • Time creep: “light overtime” can expand; modeling multiple cases helps prevent surprise.
  • Remote fragility: remote policies can shift; modeling a downside case makes that risk visible.

Disclaimer: Educational content only. Not financial advice. No recommendations to buy/sell any security.

Sources

No external sources used.